Vincent Deluard

Free Trade Is Dead and China Killed It with a Surplus

Preview:Vincent Deluarde argues that China’s industrial policy has been successful enough to force a global rethinking of capitalism, and that the West — especially the U.S. — is now borrowing parts of the Chinese playbook. He frames the issue less as a new geopolitical era than as an old debate between free trade and state-led development, updated for batteries, AI, drones, and semiconductors.

Is the "Geriatric" Bull Market in Trouble? | With Vincent Deluard

Preview:Vincent Deluard argues the U.S. market is still being carried by speculative flows, the wealth effect, and a narrow set of stimulus channels, but he thinks that support is nearing exhaustion. He is most worried that the consumer and market are entering a tipping point where liquidity, inflation, oil, and rates could all turn against equities into the summer/fall.

Why the Oil Price Shock Traps Central Banks Into No Win Policies

Preview:Vincent Deluard argues that an oil shock tied to the Strait of Hormuz creates a stagflation trap for central banks: inflation rises while growth weakens, so most policymakers will default to waiting rather than making a clean tightening or easing move.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Trigger A New Global Stagflation Era

Preview:Vincent Deluard, StoneX director of global macro strategy, argues that the Strait of Hormuz disruption is already a macro shock — potentially the largest oil supply shock since the 1970s, with a ~13 million barrel/day deficit persisting for over two months. He traces the transmission from energy prices through fertilizer/agriculture into broad-based inflation, then into demand destruction and slowing growth. Deluard sees stagflation arriving in Europe now, with the US lagging due to energy independence but eventually facing a slowdown. Key tipping points: inventory depletion, inflation expectations becoming unanchored, and the gap between official inflation measures and lived consumer experience.

Trouble in Treasuries — Where Do Investors Hide? | With Vincent Deluard

Preview:Maggie Lake interviews StoneX global macro director Vincent Deluard about why markets are treating escalating Middle East risk as surprisingly contained, and why he thinks Treasuries are no longer a reliable risk-off hedge. Deluard argues the market is still pricing a relatively benign geopolitical outcome, while he sees meaningful tail risk and a broader regime shift in reserve assets and investor protection tools.

All Roads Lead to Secular Inflation? | With Vincent Deluard

Preview:Vincent Deluard argues the market is underpricing a renewed inflation wave driven by three simultaneous shocks: a weaker dollar, tariffs, and higher energy costs. He thinks the immediate setup still favors energy and other tangible assets, but the bigger picture is a late-2025 topping process that could turn into a secular bear market around late 2026/early 2027 if stocks and bonds fall together.

How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd

Preview:Vincent Delaurd argues 2026 is set up for an inflationary growth re-acceleration, driven by strong nominal income/tax receipts, sizable tax refunds, possible additional fiscal stimulus, looser banking conditions, and AI-related capex. He sees a bubble in stocks, a bubble in pessimism, and a bubble in nominal growth all existing at once, with equities likely to grind higher into summer before risks rise later in the year.

Vincent Deluard: The Debasement Trade is Just Getting Started

Preview:Vincent Deluard argued that 2026 is likely a “debasement trade” year: energy, gold, EM, and select non-U.S. assets should benefit from a mix of pro-growth fiscal policy, Trump-driven policy activism, a still-strong economy, and eventually higher inflation and rates. He thinks the first half of the year can stay risk-on, but by late 2026 the market may need to price a hotter economy, a weaker dollar, and the possibility of Fed hikes after the midterms.

A Sigh of Relief from Markets? | With Vincent Deluard

Preview:Maggie Lake interviews StoneX macro strategist Vincent Deluard about the 2026 market setup. He argues the correction likely already happened, sees US equities grinding higher into year-end, remains unconvinced by recession fears, and is most bullish energy for 2026 because of low inventories, heavy short positioning, AI/data-center power demand, and its hedge value if inflation re-accelerates.

The Bull Case for Brazil & China | With Vincent Deluard

Preview:Vincent Deluard argues the market is in a “both boom and bubble” phase: AI capex is boosting growth and stocks, but it also creates valuation and depreciation risks. He still thinks the better opportunities are outside the U.S., especially in China and Brazil, while the dollar likely trends lower and some of the recent U.S. strength reflects crowded positioning rather than a clean macro reset.

How to Invest in an "Anti-USD" Portfolio | With Vincent Deluard

Preview:Maggie Lake interviews Vincent Deluard of StoneX about a potential July correction, tariffs, inflation, rates, the dollar, and his “anti-USD” portfolio thesis. Deluard argues the next CPI print could be hot, which may push yields higher, delay Fed cuts, and trigger a short-term pullback even though he remains constructive on the economy and dismisses recession risk.

Vincent Deluard: The Int'l Rotation Is Just Getting Started.

Preview:Vincent Deluard argues the market is too focused on the Fed and too complacent about a major global rotation: weaker US assets, higher US yields, and stronger international markets over the next several years. He sees the US fiscal impulse as still deeply expansionary despite DOGE and tariff revenue, thinks the deficit and rising yields make equities less attractive, and believes the real story is the world adjusting away from an overvalued dollar and an overowned US market.

Stocks to Rebound Before a Sideways Summer? With Vincent Deluard

Preview:Vincent Deluard argues for a near-term stock rebound, but not a durable bottom yet. He expects equities to bounce into quarter-end and after tax-related selling pressure fades, then weaken again later in 2025 if bond yields keep rising toward roughly 4.5%-4.67% on the 10-year, with another leg down potentially around the fall.

Vincent Deluard: Treasury Market Sell-Offs “the New Normal”?