Luke Gromen — market thesis over time
Tracked across 54 of Luke Gromen's own interviews · May 2025 → Jul 2026 · 6 core assets
Where Luke Gromen stands now
His latest tracked stance on each asset, most-covered first.
How their thesis has evolved
Across the period, Gromen's view shifted from broadly neutral to more negative on both bonds and Bitcoin as he emphasized structural and regime-level risks. On bonds, he moved to the view that Treasury reserve demand is not likely to recover under the current global setup; on Bitcoin, he described it as behaving like a high-beta tech asset rather than a reserve asset, with added downside if AI-related deflation strengthens.
Now vs about six months ago:
Key moves — jump to what changed and the clip:
Conviction ribbon
Each cell is a week; colour = how bullish, opacity = airtime. Click a cell to jump to the clip.
Gold
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual Gold price.
Bonds / TLT
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call.
Bitcoin
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual Bitcoin price.
US Dollar (DXY)
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual US Dollar (DXY) price.
Silver
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual Silver price.
S&P 500
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual S&P 500 price.
The turning points, in order
Each shift is anchored to the exact video and moment Luke Gromen said it.
Sees Treasury demand drying up
Gromen said Treasury reserve holdings are "never rising again," which reflects a more bearish view on bonds and the reserve-demand backdrop. His reasoning was that the global central bank Treasury bid is not coming back unless there is a major shift in the geopolitical and economic structure he described, such as the US offshoring its defense industrial base to China or China and Russia becoming US economic vassals.
“treasury reserves are never rising again”
▶ Watch this moment — $20,000 Gold Price Warning! Your Gold & Silver Holdings are About to Become Priceless - Luke Gromen ↗Treats bitcoin as risk asset
Gromen said Bitcoin is still trading like a "high beta tech stock" and not like a reserve asset, which is a more cautious stance on the asset. He added that if AI-driven deflation develops, then unless Bitcoin begins trading like a reserve asset, the faster AI advances the more risk there is of a "COVID March 2020 type of thing" in Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin is still trading like a high beta tech stock. That's just a fact. And if we get some sort of AIdriven deflation, you know, unless Bitcoin starts trading like a reserve asset, then I think, you know, the the more the faster AI goes, the more risk there is that Bitcoin does a COVID March 2020 type of thing.”
▶ Watch this moment — HUGE News Coming Out of China! Trump's About to Change Gold & Silver Prices Forever - Luke Gromen ↗Narrative refreshed 2026-07-23 · built from Luke Gromen's own interviews only.