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Felix Prehn — market thesis over time

Tracked across 94 of Felix Prehn's own interviews · Dec 2025 → Jul 2026 · 5 core assets

Where Felix Prehn stands now

His latest tracked stance on each asset, most-covered first.

Gold
bullish · 100% bull
28 interviews · last Jul 2026
S&P 500
bearish · 0% bull
16 interviews · last Jul 2026
Silver
bullish · 96% bull
13 interviews · last Jun 2026
US Dollar (DXY)
bearish · 0% bull
5 interviews · last Feb 2026
Oil
neutral · 56% bull
5 interviews · last Jul 2026

How their thesis has evolved

Felix Prehn’s view in this period shifted from broadly constructive on the S&P 500 to more cautious about what that exposure really represented. By the end of the period, he was emphasizing that the index’s gains were heavily concentrated in a small group of stocks, which made it look less like a diversified market holding and more like a concentrated tech trade.

Now vs about six months ago:

Oil
bearish (0%) neutral (56%)
Silver
bullish (92%) bullish (96%)
Gold
bullish (100%) bullish (100%)
S&P 500
bearish (0%) bearish (0%)
US Dollar (DXY)
bearish (0%) bearish (0%)

Key moves — jump to what changed and the clip:

Conviction ribbon

Each cell is a week; colour = how bullish, opacity = airtime. Click a cell to jump to the clip.

Gold28Gold · week of 2025-12-08 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsGold · week of 2025-12-29 — bull 100% · 5 claims / 1 interviewsGold · week of 2026-01-05 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 1 interviewsGold · week of 2026-01-12 — bull 91% · 10 claims / 3 interviewsGold · week of 2026-01-19 — bull 100% · 7 claims / 2 interviewsGold · week of 2026-01-26 — bull 100% · 3 claims / 2 interviewsGold · week of 2026-02-09 — bull 48% · 7 claims / 2 interviewsGold · week of 2026-02-23 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsGold · week of 2026-03-02 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 2 interviewsGold · week of 2026-03-16 — bull 22% · 3 claims / 1 interviewsGold · week of 2026-03-23 — bull 70% · 7 claims / 1 interviewsGold · week of 2026-03-30 — bull 0% · 2 claims / 1 interviewsGold · week of 2026-04-27 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 1 interviewsGold · week of 2026-06-01 — bull 78% · 7 claims / 2 interviewsGold · week of 2026-06-22 — bull 100% · 9 claims / 1 interviewsGold · week of 2026-06-29 — bull 68% · 4 claims / 2 interviewsGold · week of 2026-07-06 — bull 20% · 4 claims / 2 interviewsGold · week of 2026-07-13 — bull 100% · 3 claims / 1 interviewsGold · week of 2026-07-20 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsS&P 50016S&P 500 · week of 2025-12-08 — bull 100% · 4 claims / 3 interviewsS&P 500 · week of 2025-12-15 — bull 51% · 4 claims / 1 interviewsS&P 500 · week of 2025-12-29 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsS&P 500 · week of 2026-01-05 — bull 0% · 3 claims / 1 interviewsS&P 500 · week of 2026-01-19 — bull 0% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsS&P 500 · week of 2026-01-26 — bull 0% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsS&P 500 · week of 2026-02-02 — bull 0% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsS&P 500 · week of 2026-05-25 — bull 50% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsS&P 500 · week of 2026-06-08 — bull 0% · 5 claims / 2 interviewsS&P 500 · week of 2026-07-06 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 1 interviewsS&P 500 · week of 2026-07-13 — bull 0% · 2 claims / 2 interviewsS&P 500 · week of 2026-07-20 — bull 0% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsSilver13Silver · week of 2025-12-29 — bull 92% · 16 claims / 2 interviewsSilver · week of 2026-01-05 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsSilver · week of 2026-01-12 — bull 100% · 3 claims / 1 interviewsSilver · week of 2026-01-19 — bull 62% · 3 claims / 1 interviewsSilver · week of 2026-01-26 — bull 33% · 3 claims / 1 interviewsSilver · week of 2026-02-02 — bull 82% · 10 claims / 1 interviewsSilver · week of 2026-02-23 — bull 100% · 11 claims / 2 interviewsSilver · week of 2026-03-02 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsSilver · week of 2026-03-23 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 1 interviewsSilver · week of 2026-04-20 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 1 interviewsSilver · week of 2026-06-08 — bull 96% · 3 claims / 1 interviewsUS Dollar (DXY)5US Dollar (DXY) · week of 2026-01-12 — bull 0% · 2 claims / 1 interviewsUS Dollar (DXY) · week of 2026-01-19 — bull 0% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsUS Dollar (DXY) · week of 2026-01-26 — bull 29% · 4 claims / 2 interviewsUS Dollar (DXY) · week of 2026-02-09 — bull 0% · 2 claims / 1 interviewsOil5Oil · week of 2026-01-05 — bull 0% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsOil · week of 2026-03-02 — bull 0% · 3 claims / 1 interviewsOil · week of 2026-03-16 — bull 0% · 1 claims / 1 interviewsOil · week of 2026-03-30 — bull 14% · 2 claims / 1 interviewsOil · week of 2026-07-20 — bull 56% · 2 claims / 1 interviewsDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26

Gold

Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual Gold price.

10050052304013Gold · week of 2025-12-08 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviews “Gold and silver will continue to outperform because inflation is going to come and hit you in the face.”Gold · week of 2025-12-29 — bull 100% · 5 claims / 1 interviews “Central banks are buying gold at the highest level in modern history (about 1,000 tons per year), and the last time they bought this aggress”Gold · week of 2026-01-05 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 1 interviews “Central banks will continue buying over a thousand tons of gold annually because the US freezing Russian assets in 2022 triggered a realizat”Gold · week of 2026-01-12 — bull 91% · 10 claims / 3 interviews “Central banks are buying gold at a record pace, with purchases above 1,000 tons per year for three straight years and likely to increase fur”Gold · week of 2026-01-19 — bull 100% · 7 claims / 2 interviews “Under Basel 3, unallocated paper gold and silver are becoming expensive for banks to hold, pushing them to buy physical metal or unwind shor”Gold · week of 2026-01-26 — bull 100% · 3 claims / 2 interviews “Gold is a safer reserve asset than dollar-denominated claims because it has no counterparty risk.”Gold · week of 2026-02-09 — bull 48% · 7 claims / 2 interviews “The conditions that made the 1933 gold confiscation possible do not exist today, making a repeat highly unlikely.”Gold · week of 2026-02-23 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviews “Major gold and silver miners like Newmont and Barrick are trading at extremely low valuations (P/E of 11-13), equivalent to 2016 bottom-of-m”Gold · week of 2026-03-02 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 2 interviews “Gold has exceeded US Treasuries as a reserve asset for central banks for the first time in 30 years.”Gold · week of 2026-03-16 — bull 22% · 3 claims / 1 interviews “The paper gold market (futures, leveraged ETFs, derivatives) is diverging from the physical gold market, where Asian central banks and Chine”Gold · week of 2026-03-23 — bull 70% · 7 claims / 1 interviews “Gold drops during the first few weeks of major geopolitical shocks, not after or before, because of liquidity dynamics.”Gold · week of 2026-03-30 — bull 0% · 2 claims / 1 interviews “Gulf sovereign wealth funds (ADIA, PIF) are dumping gold bullion from London vaults, which is hidden selling that explains gold's 20% drop.”Gold · week of 2026-04-27 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 1 interviews “Central banks are buying more gold than at any time in the last 50 years because they do not trust the dollar.”Gold · week of 2026-06-01 — bull 78% · 7 claims / 2 interviews “Gold and silver’s current pullback is a setup, not a breakdown.”Gold · week of 2026-06-22 — bull 100% · 9 claims / 1 interviews “Central banks bought more gold despite the recent price drop, and their buying never stopped.”Gold · week of 2026-06-29 — bull 68% · 4 claims / 2 interviews “The US government is not going to reprice gold at $42/oz to market value this July as a 250th-anniversary celebration.”Gold · week of 2026-07-06 — bull 20% · 4 claims / 2 interviews “Gold miners are currently in pullback mode and none of the major gold and silver miners qualify for a coiled-spring breakout pattern.”Gold · week of 2026-07-13 — bull 100% · 3 claims / 1 interviews “Central banks made their largest gold purchase in three years while retail investors were panic selling.”Gold · week of 2026-07-20 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviews “Central banks around the world are hoarding gold at the fastest pace in decades because they are scared of the dollar being frozen.”Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26

S&P 500

Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual S&P 500 price.

10050075806369S&P 500 · week of 2025-12-08 — bull 100% · 4 claims / 3 interviews “By splitting monthly investments between a Roth IRA and an employer-matched 401k instead of a regular brokerage account, an investor who sav”S&P 500 · week of 2025-12-15 — bull 51% · 4 claims / 1 interviews “The best risk-adjusted returns come from buying when the market is down 20-35% from its peak, not at the absolute bottom.”S&P 500 · week of 2025-12-29 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviews “The S&P 500 will surge another 20 to 30% in 2026, likely before the midterm elections.”S&P 500 · week of 2026-01-05 — bull 0% · 3 claims / 1 interviews “The market is in stage three of the cycle, characterized by narrowing breadth where the S&P goes up but most individual stocks are declining”S&P 500 · week of 2026-01-19 — bull 0% · 1 claims / 1 interviews “A carry-trade unwind can hit US stocks, crypto, and other risk assets because forced deleveraging tends to push everything lower together.”S&P 500 · week of 2026-01-26 — bull 0% · 1 claims / 1 interviews “Gold is likely to outperform the S&P 500 in real terms when measured against the dollar.”S&P 500 · week of 2026-02-02 — bull 0% · 1 claims / 1 interviews “The market is dangerously concentrated — only seven S&P 500 stocks are responsible for almost all market gains over the last 12 months, crea”S&P 500 · week of 2026-05-25 — bull 50% · 1 claims / 1 interviews “The market is a stock-pickers market because index returns are being driven by a tiny set of leaders while most names lag.”S&P 500 · week of 2026-06-08 — bull 0% · 5 claims / 2 interviews “The S&P 500 index fund is dangerously concentrated — just 10 stocks are responsible for the majority of gains, making it a disguised tech be”S&P 500 · week of 2026-07-06 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 1 interviews “The S&P 500 will go up in the long term because it constantly replaces failing companies with better ones and benefits from money printing a”S&P 500 · week of 2026-07-13 — bull 0% · 2 claims / 2 interviews “The S&P 500 today is the most concentrated it's been in 50 years, with 30% of the index sitting in five AI stocks.”S&P 500 · week of 2026-07-20 — bull 0% · 1 claims / 1 interviews “Owning the S&P 500 means half your money is actually an AI bet.”Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26

Silver

Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual Silver price.

10050010156Silver · week of 2025-12-29 — bull 92% · 16 claims / 2 interviews “The CME has executed the same manipulation playbook — raising margin requirements at major silver peaks — three times in history: 1980, 2011”Silver · week of 2026-01-05 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviews “Silver has extreme supply tightness due to China's export controls, industrial demand from solar/electronics/AI, and the COMEX paper market ”Silver · week of 2026-01-12 — bull 100% · 3 claims / 1 interviews “Silver is in a massive physical deficit because industrial demand (solar, EVs, AI chips) is exploding while mine production is decreasing, a”Silver · week of 2026-01-19 — bull 62% · 3 claims / 1 interviews “Paper silver and other unallocated metal claims may fail because they are not fully backed by physical metal.”Silver · week of 2026-01-26 — bull 33% · 3 claims / 1 interviews “The silver market crash was engineered through margin hikes and coordinated liquidations rather than being a normal market failure.”Silver · week of 2026-02-02 — bull 82% · 10 claims / 1 interviews “If more than 75 million ounces of silver stand for delivery on first notice day for March COMEX contracts, COMEX will run out of silver very”Silver · week of 2026-02-23 — bull 100% · 11 claims / 2 interviews “Silver could reach $500 per ounce based on a 10-to-1 gold-silver ratio with gold at $5,000.”Silver · week of 2026-03-02 — bull 100% · 1 claims / 1 interviews “The COMX silver stress index is at extreme levels because inventories have dropped from 120 million to 80 million ounces in the last year.”Silver · week of 2026-03-23 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 1 interviews “The current structural setup for silver is more extreme than any major oil crisis in the last 50 years.”Silver · week of 2026-04-20 — bull 100% · 2 claims / 1 interviews “Silver is almost as cheap relative to the S&P 500 as it has ever been in the last 50 years.”Silver · week of 2026-06-08 — bull 96% · 3 claims / 1 interviews “AI infrastructure buildout will drive up demand for physical silver over the next several years.”Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26

US Dollar (DXY)

Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual US Dollar (DXY) price.

Oil

Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual Oil price.

The turning points, in order

Each shift is anchored to the exact video and moment Felix Prehn said it.

1Jun 2026

Sees heavy index concentration

S&P 500 · bullish → bearish (-67 pts)

Prehn said the S&P 500 index fund was dangerously concentrated because just 10 stocks were responsible for 72% of all the gains. That framing moved his view toward seeing the fund less as a broad market holding and more as a disguised tech bet. His emphasis was on how much of the index’s performance was coming from a very small group of names.

“just 10 stocks are responsible for 72% of all your gains”

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Narrative refreshed 2026-07-20 · built from Felix Prehn's own interviews only.