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Andy Constan

Type: Macro Analyst Tracked appearances: 12

Validated speaker AI capex

markets are driven by bubble regimes, oil shocks, and volatility spikes

X / Twitter Website

Analyzed appearances 12

Latest appearance 2026-07-18 07:53

Most seen on Excess Returns

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Economic vision

markets are driven by bubble regimes, oil shocks, and volatility spikes

Reliability notes

Admin-validated speaker with linked X / Twitter profile.
Preview built from 12 analyzed appearances.
Latest tracked appearance: 2026-07-18 07:53.
Most often seen on Excess Returns.

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Themes and assets

AI capex 2 AI and policy inflection 1 AI bubble framework 1 AI productivity and valuation 1 Anti-growth policies: tariffs and immigration 1 bond market 1 bubble regime 1 bubble regimes 1

Most discussed assets

Transcript previews

Every analyzed appearance we have for this speaker, newest first. Open any transcript preview to read the underlying transcript.

It Only Happens at Bottoms | Andy Constan on the Options Extreme That Showed Up at the Highs

options marketsingle-stock volatility

Preview:Andy Constan argues that the AI capex boom has created an unusually extreme options setup: parabolic single-name moves, very high single-stock volatility, and unusually expensive calls versus puts, which he says often shows up near bottoms and speculative peaks. He uses that signal to reinforce a broader bubble thesis in AI-related equities, while also stressing that he did not call the top directionally; instead, he found better non-directional hedges/trades in volatility.

Excess Returns

Andy Constan

2026-06-22 05:51

Expensive Market. Record Issuance. Can the Story Still Hold It Up? | 6 Things We Learned This Week

SpaceX valuationstory vs numbersIPO pricing

Preview:This weekly wrap centers on three themes: SpaceX as a story-versus-numbers valuation case, the market’s historically expensive starting point, and a possible regime shift away from buybacks toward issuance and broader participation. The hosts’ view is that the expensive market should not automatically trigger abandonment, but it does argue for selectivity and for watching where capital is actually being spent and how new shares are affecting supply/demand.

Excess Returns

Andy Constan

2026-06-16 08:57

The $700 Billion Shift | Andy Constan on What Happens When Buybacks Turn into Issuance

IPO mechanicsSpaceX IPOshare issuance vs buybacks

Preview:Andy Constan argues that the market is entering a major regime shift from net share reduction to net share issuance, driven by AI/data-center capex and a wave of large private-company IPOs and equity-linked supply. He thinks this is a meaningful headwind for asset prices and a source of added inflation, but not an immediate market crash trigger because consumer spending, wealth effects, and easy financial conditions are still supporting risk assets.

Excess Returns

Andy Constan

2026-05-24 18:25

He Studied 100 Years of Bubbles. He Exposed Private Equity's Volatility Illusion | The Weekly Wrap

bubble regimesvolatility and risk

Preview:This weekly wrap centers on bubble behavior, risk measurement, AI infrastructure constraints, and private equity’s reported low volatility. The hosts summarize clips from Cliff Asness, Andy Constan, Gene Munster/Doug Clinton, and Ben Carlson, drawing a common theme: investors often misread risk, over-lever when conditions feel calm, and focus on the most sensational dangers rather than the ones that actually drive portfolio outcomes.

Excess Returns

Andy Constan

2026-05-21 08:35

He Invested Through Five Bubbles | Andy Constan on What Works — and What Always Breaks

bubble regimeAI and policy inflectioninvestor psychology

Preview:Andy Constan argues that markets are in a late-stage bubble regime: a change phase was followed by escalation and now parabolic, low-volatility trending behavior that encourages investors to lever up at exactly the wrong time. His core advice is not to call the top, but to adapt behavior: reduce max leverage, be wary of FOMO, rebalance less aggressively into strong trends, and understand your own tendency to chase or regret cash decisions.

Excess Returns

Andy Constan

2026-05-13 08:52

He Invested Through Five Bubbles | Andy Constan on What They Taught Him About AI

AI bubble frameworkChatGPT / OpenAI

Preview:Andy Constan argues the current AI-led market has bubble characteristics: a new technology shock, escalation through FOMO and policy easing, and a peaking phase driven by stretched expectations around semis and AI capex.

Excess Returns

Andy Constan

2026-03-03 08:34

100% Out of US Stocks | Andy Constan on the Rotation Most Investors Miss

Iran / Middle East conflictmarket uncertainty frameworkAI productivity and valuation

Preview:Andy Constan argues that the key market issue is not the Middle East shock itself, but the huge funding burden behind AI capex, fiscal deficits, and other big promises. He says he is fully out of US stocks, has shifted toward international markets because overseas bond yields now make non-US portfolios investable again, and remains broadly constructive on growth but skeptical that current valuations, especially in US tech, can absorb all the promised future earnings.

Forward Guidance

Andy Constan

2026-01-07 04:01

Future Growth Will Be Driven By Banks, Not the Fed | Andy Constan

private credit creationFed balance sheetAI capex

Preview:Andy Constan argues that the market has moved from a Fed-driven liquidity regime to one driven mainly by private credit creation, bank lending, and the funding of large real-economy promises like AI buildout and onshoring. He thinks the key question for 2026 is not whether the Fed buys assets, but who funds these promises, at what price, and whether the resulting borrowing pressure lifts growth without breaking credit markets.

Excess Returns

Andy Constan

2025-10-09 08:30

You're Betting on the Middle | Andy Constan on Why the Risk Lies in the Tails

macro frameworksystematic vs discretionarygrowth

Preview:Andy Constan argues that today’s macro setup is unusually “digital”: small changes in policy or growth can push markets to very different outcomes, so the right posture is to think in probabilities and tails, not one base case. He sees growth as uneven but supported by AI capex and fiscal/wealth effects, while tariffs, labor softness, Fed policy, and the financing of AI investment are the key uncertainties.

Maggie Lake Talking Markets

Andy Constan

2025-09-24 15:41

Andy Constan: Bond Market "Will Fail to Outperform Cash"

Fed policy and rate expectationsSOFR curve repricing post-FOMCAnti-growth policies: tariffs and immigration

Preview:Andy Constan (Damped Spring Advisors) argues that broad long-term assets — stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, credit — are overpriced and offer inadequate forward returns. The Fed was less dovish than markets expected; the SOFR curve has backed up from 130bps to ~96bps. His macro view: growth will disappoint, inflation stays sticky, jobs weaken, and anti-growth policies (immigration restrictions, tariffs) are headwinds. He's positioned heavily in cash (~50% of long-only book), short equities, long short rates (expects more cuts), and recently shorted gold tactically. He flags mortgage convexity as a potential bond-market tailwind if rates fall further, but sees limited juice in assets broadly. The conversation also covers his career lessons from Salomon Brothers, Bridgewater, and Brevan Howard.

Maggie Lake Talking Markets

Andy Constan

2025-04-07 15:45

Deconstructing the Bloodbath, With Andy Constan

policy resettariffs and trade warfiscal uncertainty

Preview:Andy Constan argues the market selloff is a rational response to a broad policy reset: tighter trade policy, fiscal uncertainty, reduced immigration/labor supply, and a more inflationary, less growth-friendly mix that keeps the Fed cautious. He thinks the tape may be due for a bounce, but not that a durable bottom is in yet; his posture is to hold a lot of cash, sell rallies, and selectively add to beaten-down assets like bonds, gold, and some commodities only on weakness.

Excess Returns

Andy Constan

2025-03-27 07:31

Rising Market Risks | Will the Trump and Powell Puts Save Us? | Andy Constan

Trump policy mixPowell putbond market

Preview:Andy Constan argues that the Trump, Bessent, and Powell policy mix is not aimed at crashing stocks, but at slowing nominal growth enough to kill inflation and normalize the economy. He thinks that is broadly bullish for bonds, negative for equities in the near term, and already showing up as a slowdown in financial conditions even before the hard data fully turns.

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