Steve Hanke — market thesis over time
Tracked across 65 of Steve Hanke's own interviews · Jan 2025 → Jul 2026 · 6 core assets
Where Steve Hanke stands now
His latest tracked stance on each asset, most-covered first.
How their thesis has evolved
Across the period, Hanke’s comments moved from emphasizing unusual rate and currency behavior tied to policy and regime uncertainty, to stressing how policy decisions could reshape longer-term bond yields, and later to a more forceful view that geopolitical disruption could materially affect oil markets. The thread running through the shifts is a focus on the mechanisms behind market moves rather than on simple direction calls.
Now vs about six months ago:
Key moves — jump to what changed and the clip:
Conviction ribbon
Each cell is a week; colour = how bullish, opacity = airtime. Click a cell to jump to the clip.
Gold
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual Gold price.
Oil
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual Oil price.
S&P 500
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual S&P 500 price.
10Y yield
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call.
US Dollar (DXY)
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call. Amber line = actual US Dollar (DXY) price.
Bonds / TLT
Weekly bullish stance. Dot size = interviews that week; click a dot for the headline call.
The turning points, in order
Each shift is anchored to the exact video and moment Steve Hanke said it.
Sees abnormal yield behavior
Hanke said the 10-year yield was rising even as conditions around money supply and inflation were moving the other way, and he described that as not normal. He linked the move to regime uncertainty, saying that this uncertainty was the reason the yield was behaving that way. The view became less about a simple bond call and more about explaining the yield move through political and policy instability.
“now the 10year is going up the yield. So so it's not it it's not normal and and why isn't it normal? It's because of the regime uncertainty aspect”
▶ Watch this moment — 🔴 Professor Steve Hanke's HUGE Prediction for GOLD Buyers ↗Notes stronger dollar share
Hanke pointed to the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange trading rising from 88.4 to 89.2. His comment framed the dollar as taking a larger role in global FX activity, rather than weakening in influence. The updated view emphasized the dollar’s continued centrality in the system through its higher share.
“the US dollar went from 88.4 to 89.2”
▶ Watch this moment — Steve Hanke on the Administration’s Attempt to Fix Argentina and Many Other Countries ↗Warns longer yields may rise
Hanke said that cutting Fed funds rates would lower the overnight rate, but he expected longer-duration rates on the yield curve to end up going up. The view focused on the difference between short rates and long rates, with the longer end moving higher despite easier policy at the front end. His reasoning was that the Fed’s action would not translate into lower long-term borrowing costs.
“that would lower those Fed funds rates. That's an overnight rate. But what would happen the long the longer duration rates on the yield curve would end up going up”
▶ Watch this moment — The Fed Is Not Independent | Steve Hanke and Jimmy Connor ↗Grows more alert on oil
Hanke said the situation around the Strait of Hormuz could lead to numbers like around $350 a barrel. The quote shows him becoming more alert to the oil price impact of a closed Strait and the broader Iran conflict. His view was anchored in the possibility that a sustained disruption through the summer months could drive a much higher oil price.
“you you end up with numbers like around $350 a barrel”
▶ Watch this moment — Steve Hanke: Massive Inflation Ahead & Markets 'Totally Complacent' On Iran War ↗Narrative refreshed 2026-07-23 · built from Steve Hanke's own interviews only.