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Rory Johnston

Type: Speaker Tracked appearances: 11

Validated speaker oil supply shock

oil and commodity market analysis for investors

Analyzed appearances 11

Latest appearance 2026-07-17 05:00

Most seen on Mario Nawfal

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Research profile

Profile notes are still being inferred from transcripts.

Economic vision

oil and commodity market analysis for investors

Reliability notes

Admin-validated speaker with linked X / Twitter profile.
Preview built from 11 analyzed appearances.
Latest tracked appearance: 2026-07-17 05:00.
Most often seen on Mario Nawfal.

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Themes and assets

oil supply shock 3 Strait of Hormuz 3 oil price shock 2 China crude imports 1 Chinese oil import collapse 1 Crude oil and energy supply 1 demand destruction 1 diesel and jet fuel 1

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Transcript previews

Every analyzed appearance we have for this speaker, newest first. Open any transcript preview to read the underlying transcript.

Rory Johnston: What Everyone Is Getting Wrong About The Oil Price Amidst Iran War

Hormuz trafficdiesel cracks

Preview:Rory Johnston argues that the oil market has swung violently from a brief post-conflict oversupply back toward tightening as Hormuz traffic slows, China begins buying again, and refined-product balances remain extremely tight. His central point is that crude itself is not the main bottleneck anymore; diesel and other products are, with refinery outages, weak product inventories, and war damage creating the real scarcity risk.

Mario Nawfal

Rory Johnston

2026-06-26 08:46

"TRUMP FORCED TO SIGN MoU" - w/ Energy Expert Rory Johnston

Iran MOU and Strait of Hormuz reopeningTanker flow analysis (inbound vs outbound)

Preview:Rory Johnston argues the Iran MOU was signed under duress, not because oil markets were screaming — crude was only at $80-90, equities near all-time highs — but Trump acted as if $150 oil was imminent. He breaks down tanker flows in and out of the Strait of Hormuz: outbound traffic has surged (9-10 mb/d trending vs 2-3 mb/d during the crisis), but inbound tankers remain very low (~4-5 mb/d), signaling ship owners still fear the deal could collapse. The result is a short-term oil glut as stranded floating storage rushes out, flipping Brent into contango, even though physical supply constraints remain unresolved long-term.

Mario Nawfal

Rory Johnston

2026-06-26 05:16

CHINA JUST DID SOMETHING NOBODY CAN EXPLAIN – w/ Energy Expert Rory Johnston

Strategic petroleum reserve drawdownsHormuz Strait transit and Iranian leverage

Preview:Rory Johnston breaks down the staggering collapse in Chinese oil imports since the Middle East war began — a drop of roughly 5 million barrels per day — and walks through the mystery of how China absorbed the shortfall. Visible inventories barely moved, refining runs collapsed to COVID-zero levels, yet mobility indicators don't show equivalent demand destruction. His conclusion: China likely drew down massive underground strategic petroleum reserves and hidden refined product stockpiles, possibly built ahead of a Taiwan contingency but deployed instead for a Hormuz crisis. He also flags that every global buffer (IEA SPRs, commercial stocks, Iranian/Russian floating storage) has been drained at maximum pace, leaving the market deeply vulnerable despite the current calm.

Mario Nawfal

Rory Johnston

2026-06-24 14:47

TANKER TRAFFIC SHOW WAR COULD RESTART - w/ Energy Expert Rory Johnston

Hormuz shipping flowstankers and loadings

Preview:Rory Johnston argues the post-conflict oil market is still fragile: tanker traffic and loadings have improved, but the Strait of Hormuz is not normalized and a renewed clampdown could still shock flows. He says the immediate price relief comes from stranded barrels re-entering the market, while the bigger reason oil never reached $150 was a massive and unexpected demand/stock drawdown in China, plus SPR releases and rerouting.

Natural Resource Stocks

Rory Johnston

2026-06-01 19:19

The Oil Market Is Ignoring a Record Crisis, Rory Johnston Warns

OPEC supply cuts

Preview:Rory Johnston argues the oil market is underpricing a real supply shock from the Iran/Hormuz crisis, even though Brent has not reacted the way he expected. His core point is that physical balances are tightening fast: global stocks are being drawn at record rates, Gulf production has been heavily disrupted, and the market’s calm is being sustained by hidden inventories, China-related stock movements, and policy/jawboning effects rather than true easing.

CNBC International Live

Rory Johnston

2026-05-29 10:07

Squawk Box Asia - 29-May-26

US-Iran ceasefire and Hormuz riskTokyo CPI and Bank of Japan

Preview:CNBC International Live framed the session around two main market drivers: a potential US-Iran ceasefire extension that pushed oil lower and risk assets higher, and a string of Asia data prints that kept Japan, Korea, and China market moves in focus. Guests mostly agreed that the market is leaning too hard on the idea of immediate peace in the Middle East, even though actual supply restoration through Hormuz remains uncertain and could take weeks or months.

CNBC International Live

Rory Johnston

2026-05-28 23:39

An extended U.S.-Iran ceasefire is the 'worst-case scenario' for energy: Rory Johnston

U.S.-Iran ceasefireHormuz risk

Preview:Rory Johnston argues that an extended U.S.-Iran ceasefire is bearish for energy in the short run because it prevents the market from resolving a growing supply deficit, while the real upside risk comes from renewed attacks on upstream infrastructure. He says inventories are being drawn down rapidly in the U.S. and globally, but headline-driven volatility, SPR releases, and hidden stockpiles—especially in China—are masking how tight the market really is.

Jimmy Connor

Rory Johnston

2026-05-13 07:00

No Stopping Oil Price Shock | Rory Johnston and Jimmy Connor

Strait of HormuzTrump intervention

Preview:Rory Johnston argues the oil market is still underpricing a major supply shock from the Middle East, even though prices have not yet reacted as strongly as he expected. He says the lag is being caused by Trump-driven jawboning, slow physical inventory drawdowns, and confusing China data, but his base case remains materially higher oil if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and shut-in supply does not return quickly.

Nate Hagens

Rory Johnston

2026-04-29 08:01

Are We Ready for Energy Shockwaves From the Strait of Hormuz? with Rory Johnston | TGS 218

strategic petroleum reserves

Preview:Rory Johnston argues the Strait of Hormuz closure is a historic oil shock because roughly 20% of global oil flows through it, and the market’s reaction has likely been too calm given the size and persistence of the supply loss. He walks through how supply is being offset by rerouting, inventories, and strategic releases, but says those buffers only buy time; if the closure persists, prices must rise sharply enough to destroy demand, with especially severe effects for Asia and the global south.

Palisades Gold Radio

Rory Johnston

2026-04-22 05:01

Rory Johnston: This is When Oil Prices Will Shoot Higher | Demand Destruction

demand destruction

Preview:Rory Johnston argues the Iran/Hormuz disruption is already one of the largest oil supply shocks in market history, but prices are still not fully reflecting it because the market is backwardated, inventory data have not yet fully broken, and Trump’s repeated verbal intervention has whipsawed traders. He thinks the physical shortage is real and growing every day, even if Brent is still below the level he believes would force obvious demand destruction.

Jimmy Connor

Rory Johnston

2026-03-13 07:00

$200 Oil and Impact on Global Economy | Rory Johnston and Jimmy Connor

strait of hormuzdiesel and jet fuel

Preview:Rory Johnston argues the closure/disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is an unprecedented oil supply shock that could drive Brent materially higher, potentially toward the inflation-adjusted 2008 high if the disruption lasts weeks. He says the immediate effect is already severe in diesel, jet fuel, tanker traffic, and global supply chains, and he sees strategic reserves as helpful but far too small to offset the loss.

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