Jim Paulsen

Research profile

Jim Paulsen is a macro market strategist who focuses on cross-asset indicators, breadth/leadership shifts, and how underlying economic data diverges from headline narratives. Across the supplied interviews, he repeatedly emphasizes reading the economy beneath the surface: weak job creation, soft broad-based growth, tightening financial conditions, and a widening gap between a fast-growing “new era” tech/AI segment and a much larger, flatter older economy. He is comfortable using a mix of charts and narrative framing, and he presents his work through his Substack, Paulsen Perspectives, plus recurring appearances on Excess Returns. He also tends to frame markets as cyclical and rotational rather than as all-or-nothing calls.

Economic vision

Paulsen’s recurring economic worldview is that the U.S. economy is much weaker in aggregate than the headline numbers suggest, with growth increasingly concentrated in a narrow AI/new-era complex while most of the economy is close to stall speed. He repeatedly argues that this does not automatically imply a recession or a long bear market; instead, he expects slower growth, periodic corrections, and leadership rotation away from mega-cap tech toward broader-market, value, small-cap, international, and equal-weight exposures. He also thinks inflation worries are often misread when the shock is supply-driven rather than demand-driven, and he sees policy easing or broader stimulus as a likely eventual support for both stocks and bonds. Overall, he is constructive on the long bull market longer term, but cautious near term about froth, concentration, and underappreciated weakness beneath the surface.

Reliability notes

• Admin-validated speaker with linked X / Twitter profile.
• Preview built from 18 analyzed appearances.
• Latest tracked appearance: 2026-07-13 08:26.
• Most often seen on Excess Returns.