France, Etats-Unis, Bitcoin, Or : Le grand chamboulement c’est maintenant !

This video is a solo market/economic commentary centered on four themes: France’s weakening economy, the U.S. tariff/legal battle, the contrast between Bitcoin and gold, and a brief positive note on French sovereign yields. Touati opens by framing the moment as a major economic and political upheaval and says he intends to tell the "truth" despite pressure. On France, he says official business sentiment indicators from INSEE keep falling and that employment expectations are at their lowest since 2013 outside the pandemic period. He interprets the PMI-style surveys as showing France in contraction while Germany is improving, and argues that France is dragging down the euro area. He links the deterioration to rising business failures, a worsening labor market, and the risk of unemployment moving toward 9% in category A. …

1. France is portrayed as the weakest major economy in the video, with business surveys, employment expectations, and PMI readings all signaling contraction.
2. Touati believes the French labor market is deteriorating enough to imply a potential rise in unemployment toward 9%.
3. The U.S. Supreme Court ruling against tariff use under emergency powers is framed as a legal setback, but Trump’s replacement tariffs mean trade friction remains elevated.
4. He argues tariffs hurt Chinese exports to the U.S. but that removing them could still be negative for Europe because Chinese goods would redirect there.
5. Bitcoin is presented as vulnerable and not a true safe haven; gold is presented as the more durable refuge asset for 2026.
6. China’s trade surplus and the yuan’s undervaluation are used to support the view that global trade imbalances remain structurally dangerous.
7. The fall in French 10-year yields is a short-term relief, not evidence that France’s underlying fiscal or political risks have gone away.

• He treats official French indicators as if they fully capture the direction of the economy, but also argues measurement is unreliable and GDP is overstated; those two claims are directionally consistent but analytically tensioned because he relies on the same official system to diagnose deterioration.
• He suggests the tariff rollback is bad globally because Chinese exports will flow elsewhere, but does not quantify how much of the displacement would actually reach Europe versus being absorbed elsewhere or re-routed through supply chains.
• His claim that China’s yuan equilibrium is around 3.50 per dollar is asserted rather than demonstrated, and he gives no methodology for that fair-value estimate.
• He presents gold as a safer refuge than Bitcoin while acknowledging gold has also had speculative surges; the argument is plausible but he does not distinguish structural refuge demand from speculative momentum in a rigorous way.
• The unemployment projection toward 9% is presented as a near-inevitable implication of current indicators, but the path from survey data to that exact level is not fully shown.