Gary Wagner says gold’s plunge looks technically severe but is still not conclusively a bearish regime change. He remains cautious on gold near term, keeps a $6,000 year-end target, and sees crude oil as the current relative-strength trade.
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This is a host-led interview with Gary Wagner of thegoldforecast.com about a sharp selloff in gold and silver after gold’s run to an all-time high above $5,600. The conversation revolves around whether the decline is a deep but acceptable correction or the start of a bullish-to-bearish reversal. Wagner says the technical picture is concerning: gold has broken below its 50-day moving average, posted a sequence of lower lows and lower highs, and is approaching a key 78% Fibonacci retracement around 4,568. Even so, he repeatedly says he is not ready to call a confirmed trend reversal because, in his view, the underlying fundamentals have not meaningfully changed. Wagner’s macro framework is that gold should still be supported by inflation pressure, persistent U.S. fiscal deficits, and geopolitical instability. …
Tactically, gold looks vulnerable while it remains below key trend support and just above a major retracement level. Oil is the cleaner momentum expression as long as the geopolitical premium stays active.
Over the next few weeks and months, gold can still recover if the current damage proves to be a correction inside a broader bull trend. If it cannot reclaim lost support and oil keeps outperforming, the market may gradually reprice this as a more lasting bearish shift.
Structurally, the interview preserves the long-run bullish case for gold: inflation, deficits, and recurring geopolitical stress remain supportive of hard assets. The larger regime question is whether oil temporarily displaces gold as the main inflation and conflict hedge.
Gold’s drop from above $5,600 may be either a deep correction or the start of a bearish regime shift.
He explicitly frames the central question as correction versus pivot and says the charts are close to a reversal point.
Gold breaking below its 50-day moving average is a major technical red flag that increases the odds of a bearish pivot.
He repeatedly identifies the 50-day as a line in the sand and says the break below it matters.
A break below the 78% retracement around 4,568 would materially strengthen the case that gold has shifted from bullish to bearish.
He specifies the threshold and says that would force him to acknowledge stronger evidence of a fundamental shift in sentiment.
Why is gold, and to a certain extent silver, crashing?
Wagner says the selloff may reflect a mix of technical overextension, a possible bearish pivot, and a capital rotation away from gold into crude oil despite unresolved geopolitical and inflationary fundamentals.
Do you see similarities to prior double-top collapses in 2011 and 1980?
He agrees the pattern resemblance is real, but says the current setup is not yet conclusive because the key technical and fundamental thresholds have not fully aligned.
How do you judge how low something can go after it breaks down technically?
He uses a short-term Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day moving average as his key guideposts; as long as gold stays above the 78% retracement, he can still call it a correction instead of a reversal.
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