Jeremy Saffron and Gary Wagner frame gold as being in a sharp geopolitical-and-dollar-driven correction after a huge run, with $5,000–$5,100 highlighted as key support. Silver is presented as stronger than gold, with Wagner arguing the broader precious-metals bull trend remains intact unless the conflict becomes prolonged and oil stays elevated.
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This Kitco interview centers on a violent move in precious metals following escalation in the Middle East, with gold retreating from a peak around 5,434–5,600 toward the 5,000 area while the U.S. dollar strengthens and oil spikes. Jeremy Saffron opens by describing the move as a major pivot point driven by geopolitical rally, aggressive technical selling, and inflation fears from a roughly 38% weekly oil jump. Gary Wagner says the selling is not just technical; it is also a macro reaction to crisis conditions, a stronger dollar, and expectations that the Fed may be less accommodative if inflation pressures rise. Wagner treats gold’s decline as a correction inside an ongoing bull market rather than a definitive trend break. He emphasizes that the key question is whether the Middle East conflict is short-lived or becomes a prolonged event. …
Immediate setup is defensive: gold is trying to defend the 5,000 area while oil and the dollar decide whether the next move is stabilization or another selloff. For now, the trade is headline-sensitive and leverage looks risky until volatility compresses.
Over the next few weeks, the default path is a correction inside an ongoing metals bull market unless gold loses support and oil/dollar strength persists. Quick de-escalation would likely restore the uptrend; prolonged conflict would keep the metals complex under pressure and raise the odds of a deeper reset.
Structurally, the transcript argues that precious metals remain in a bullish regime, with geopolitical shocks and energy inflation acting as recurring accelerants rather than trend killers. The lasting implication is that metal exposure may need to be managed with less leverage and more real-asset durability in a higher-volatility world.
Gold’s recent decline is a correction inside a larger bullish market, not necessarily a trend failure.
Wagner explicitly says the market is still in a correction and asks whether it will complete an ABC correction or continue higher.
Gold has strong support around 5,000 to just below 5,100 based on candle bodies rather than wicks.
He explains that the real bodies sit below 5,100 and that wicks are unsustainable extremes.
The speed and severity of the selloff are tied to crisis-driven dollar buying and expectations of less Fed accommodation.
He says investors moved gold into dollars because of crisis conditions, oil strength, and the chance the Fed will not cut as much.
Do rapid recoveries like the one we're seeing lead to sustainable new highs or are we building a massive head and shoulder pattern?
Wagner says it depends on the macro geopolitical environment gold is trading within, specifically the Strait of Hormuz situation. He notes 20% of global oil production comes through the strait, and for countries like India and China, 40% of their oil comes from Iran. If the conflict resolves within one to two weeks, things will pivot back. If it extends to a month or more, all bets are off for a soft landing.
Over the next few weeks, is your base case that gold holds its correction and pushes to fresh highs, or is there a deeper reset before the bull trend resumes?
Wagner says the market is definitely still in a correction. The question is whether the brutal quick correction is done with recovery beginning now, or if it's an ABC correction with one more wave lower. He notes the strength of the uptrend shows resilience, with gold recovering $120 off its lows today. He adds that hopeful statements about the conflict ending would have an unwinding effect on the recent moves.
For someone looking at a three-month horizon, should they ignore these daily wicks and focus strictly on the monthly closing trend?
Wagner says it's virtually impossible for a trader to trade off a monthly chart, and even a weekly gets tough. He recommends traders refine their strategy to be less susceptible to risk from crazy moves. He advises accumulating physical gold for long-term holding, and moving into non-leveraged products like GLD rather than futures when volatility is extreme.
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