Adam Taggart and portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz frame the market as temporarily improving after the Iran/Israel ceasefire and the retreat in oil prices. Their main message is tactical: respect what price action is saying, stay active, and shift portfolio exposure as the tape and macro risks evolve.
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This weekly market recap centered on the market’s reaction to the Iran/Israel conflict, the ceasefire headline, and the resulting moves in stocks, oil, yields, and sentiment. Adam Taggart opened by emphasizing that Thoughtful Money is a weekly market recap and introduced Michael Lebowitz as a portfolio manager at RAA/RIAA. The discussion then focused on how markets had already started improving before the ceasefire, but the ceasefire was enough to reinforce the move: the S&P 500 had recovered sharply, oil prices had fallen, and bond yields had eased. Lebowitz repeatedly argued that market participants should separate personal views and political narratives from the tape. He said the market is “basically letting the market tell us what it knows,” and that in volatile, uncertain periods, technicals matter more. …
Tactically, the market looks better as long as oil keeps easing and the ceasefire holds, but this is still a headline-sensitive setup. The immediate trade is to respect the breakout while staying ready to cut risk if the conflict or crude turns back up.
Over the next few months, the base case is a volatile normalization: stocks can keep recovering if energy shocks fade, but growth and inflation data will likely wobble before clarity returns. Confirmation would come from stable oil, calmer yields, and improving earnings sentiment; invalidation would come from renewed Middle East escalation or a sustained food/energy inflation pulse.
Structurally, the tape suggests a more active regime where geopolitics, energy shocks, and AI disruption matter more than simple buy-and-hold exposure. The lasting implication is a more fragmented market environment with greater dispersion across sectors, especially favoring defense, data, and large-cap tech over vulnerable software names.
The market had started improving before the ceasefire, but the ceasefire accelerated a technically bullish reversal.
Lebowitz said the market was turning up before the ceasefire and then rallied through key moving averages after it.
The market cares much more about oil prices than about Iran itself.
Lebowitz explicitly said investors should focus on oil because that is what moves stocks, yields, and sentiment.
The current inflation impulse is likely to show up first in headline CPI, while core inflation will be less directly hit.
He distinguished headline CPI from core CPI and said core excludes food and energy but still includes some oil-linked costs.
Michael, how are you doing?
Mike responds that he's doing great and thanks Adam for having him.
The ceasefire this week that seems to have given the market optimism — what's your take on it?
Mike says the market was already turning up before the ceasefire. He thinks the ceasefire is a huge improvement from the prior situation where no one was talking and rhetoric was extreme. Even if imperfect, it shows discussions are happening, which is what the market wanted to see.
How do you separate your personal views about geopolitics from what the market is telling you as a money manager?
Mike recounts a conversation with his son Andrew who was panicked about escalation. He explained that the market was only down 40 points (less than half a percent) — if the worst-case outcome were truly likely, the market would be down 10-40%. He says the market collectively knows more than any individual investor, and you have to read what the market is telling you even when it contradicts your personal views. Their fund removed their short hedge when the market decisively broke above key moving averages.
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