Gareth Soloway argues oil has already made its major spike and should roll back, which would briefly support a bounce in stocks and Bitcoin, but he remains bearish on equities into a later-year slowdown. He’s also bearish near-term on gold and silver, calling their recent surge emotional and unsustainable, while still liking them long term.
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This is a host-led interview with Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist and president of Verified Investing, focused on current market stress across oil, equities, rates, gold/silver, Bitcoin, and the Fed. Gareth says his earlier bullish oil call was chart-based, not a geopolitical prediction, and that the oil breakout fit a bullish technical pattern. He now believes the highs in oil are in around $120 and expects a pullback toward the $70–80 area over the next few months, partly because the U.S. economy should weaken and because the policy response will likely push oil lower before election-sensitive inflation feeds through. He frames the market as being in a stagflationary setup: inflation remains sticky while the economy, consumer, and labor market soften. …
Near term, the setup is for oil to ease, which could briefly lift risk assets and especially Bitcoin; the immediate risk is that a fresh geopolitical shock breaks that script. The Fed meeting and yield reaction are the key tactical catalysts.
Over the next few months, the more likely path is a stagflationary grind: softer growth, sticky inflation, and higher long-end yields that eventually pressure equities again. Any rally from lower oil would be treated as a tradable bounce unless earnings and labor data re-accelerate.
Structurally, he’s arguing that fiat debasement and policy distortions still favor hard assets, but only after violent mean reversion in crowded trades. The durable regime view is one of recurring liquidity-driven bubbles and reversals across commodities, crypto, and momentum stocks.
The breakout in oil was chart-driven and signaled a large move even without predicting the Iran war.
He says the chart gave a heads-up and the bullish pattern called the breakout, not the geopolitical event.
Oil has likely already made its highs around $120 and should pull back toward $70–80 over the next 3 to 6 months.
He explicitly says highs are in and forecasts a drawdown to the $70s.
The U.S. is in a stagflation-like setup with slowing growth and persistent inflation, making the Fed boxed in.
He ties weakening economy and sticky inflation together and says this is the base case.
Can you walk us through what you were looking at in the charts for oil back when you called it as a top performer?
Gareth explains that charts give you a heads-up something is going to happen. He saw a bullish pattern with oil at base bottom levels and a downsloping trend line, with a breakout occurring on January 9th. He didn't predict the Iran war but the chart was telling him something was going to happen, leading to a spike to $120. He now thinks the highs are in and expects a drawdown back to $70 over the next 3-6 months.
How can you be so sure that oil will come back down?
Gareth points to Iran's military power being majorly degraded, that the straits will open, and that with a midterm election coming, the president needs to get oil down significantly within a month or two to curb inflation hitting around the midterms. He acknowledges geopolitics are likely influenced by elections to some extent.
When you see an asset move up vertically like oil did, what do you do as a trader?
Gareth says when panic enters the system and investors let their imaginations get the best of them, he usually counter-trades those explosive moves. He was short oil a little early, got in around $100, and exited when it pulled back to $75-80. He believes a good technician stays logical and uses others' emotion to trigger the inverse move.
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