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THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT BITCOIN TRADE SETUPS FOR THIS WEEK

Channel: 100XClub Published: 2026-04-13 05:41
100XClub

The speaker lays out two Bitcoin trade plans for the week: stay short unless BTC reclaims and structurally confirms a higher-low/bullish shift on lower timeframes; otherwise expect another move down into nearby liquidity. He frames the setup as highly headline-driven because of Iran/Israel/U.S. developments, and briefly extends the same bearish read to the S&P 500.

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Detailed summary

This is a short tactical market update centered on Bitcoin chart structure and headline risk. The speaker says he is already short BTC based on a four-hour market structure shift and a daily retracement into prior supply/order-block area. He argues the daily chart does not yet show strong bullish confirmation, so the current move may still be a retrace inside a larger daily reversal lower. The main bearish setup is to stay short and add on a retrace toward the 72,450 area, with an eventual stop above roughly 76,000 if price keeps squeezing higher. He also presents a conditional long setup: if BTC retraces to around 69,450 and then prints a clear lower-timeframe market structure shift with a higher high on the 15-minute or hourly chart, he would take a long targeting at least the prior high and possibly a higher liquidity zone for about a 10% upside move. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Primary bias is bearish Bitcoin unless lower-timeframe confirmation flips the tape.
  2. The speaker sees a daily retrace into supply/order block, not a clean bullish reversal.
  3. Two setups are proposed: add to shorts on a bounce, or buy only if a lower-timeframe bullish shift confirms.
  4. Headlines around Iran/Israel/U.S. are treated as the main catalyst risk.
  5. He also carries a bearish view on the S&P 500 and says broad markets are headline-driven.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Bearish bias for BTC in the immediate tape unless price quickly reclaims the stated retrace zone and prints lower-timeframe bullish confirmation; headline spikes could still force a fast squeeze.

  • Immediate focus is whether BTC bounces into the 72,450 area and rejects or instead reclaims higher levels.
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  • The bearish trade is already active; he would add if price retraces upward into his preferred supply zone.
  • A stop above roughly 76,000 is mentioned as the invalidation zone for the short idea.
Mid term

Base case is a continued drift lower or failed bounce over the coming weeks, with only a confirmed market-structure shift turning the view neutral-to-bullish. The key invalidation is sustained acceptance above the short’s stop zone.

  • Over the next several weeks, the base case is continuation lower unless BTC builds a more convincing daily reversal structure.
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  • He wants lower-timeframe confirmation to distinguish a real trend change from a simple retracement within a larger down move.
  • A sustained recovery would require price to hold a pullback and then break structure on the 15-minute/hourly charts.
Long term

The lasting takeaway is that BTC is being traded as a high-beta, headline-sensitive risk asset, where geopolitical shocks can overwhelm clean chart setups. The broader regime remains event-driven and volatile rather than stable trend-following.

  • The speaker’s framing implies a regime where crypto and risk assets are being dominated by macro headlines rather than purely technical drift.
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  • He treats liquidity sweeps and order-block reactions as repeatable structure, suggesting a durable chart-based trading framework.
  • No long-term Bitcoin valuation thesis is presented; the structural implication is mostly about volatility and event-driven price discovery.
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Key claims (8)

0:00
MIXED crypto trading Bitcoin

Bitcoin has two actionable setups this week: one short and one conditional long.

The speaker explicitly frames the video around two trade setups.

0:10
BEARISH crypto trading Bitcoin

The current BTC short is based on a four-hour market structure shift and a daily retracement into supply/order-block area.

He repeatedly references the four-hour structure, daily order block, and supply zone as the basis for being short.

1:10
BEARISH crypto trading Bitcoin

The daily chart does not yet show strong bullish confirmation because there are no three consecutive green candles.

He uses the absence of three green candles as a reason the daily level is not strong enough for a clean reversal.

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Assets discussed (3)

Bitcoin — BTC
MIXED crypto

Main asset discussed; speaker is already short but also outlines a conditional long if lower-timeframe structure confirms.

S&P 500 — SPX
BEARISH index

He says he has been adding to short positions and expects no close above 7,230.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The argument leans heavily on discretionary chart patterns and terms like order blocks, AMD, and market structure shifts without objective validation.
  • He treats the lack of three consecutive green daily candles as evidence against a strong bullish reversal, which is suggestive but not definitive.
  • The claim that a wick sweep alone can signal reversal is acknowledged as weak confirmation, so the long setup rests on tentative evidence.
  • The geopolitical framing is broad and somewhat hand-wavy; specific transmission from Iran/Israel/U.S. headlines to BTC levels is not quantified.
  • The addition to the short at 72,450 and stop above 76,000 is precise, but the rationale for those exact levels is not independently demonstrated.

Topics

bitcoin technical setupshort versus long scenariosdaily and four-hour market structureorder blocks and liquidity sweepsheadline-driven marketsgeopolitical riskS&P 500 biasrisk managementcommunity/telegram promotion

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