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Two Weeks of Supply Left: Why the ‘Copper Crunch’ is Worse Than Ever - Ian Harris

Channel: ITM TRADING, INC. Published: 2026-04-13 11:40
ITM TRADING, INC.

Ian Harris, president and CEO of Copper Giant Resources, argues that copper is in a structural supply crunch driven by electrification, AI/data centers, and long mine-development times, and says Copper Giant’s Makoa project in Colombia is unusually attractive because it is large, near-surface, high-grade, and rich in molybdenum.

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Detailed summary

This interview is a focused bull case for copper and for Copper Giant Resources’ Makoa project. Host Della Cambone frames the discussion around an “official copper crunch” and introduces Ian Harris as the president and CEO of Copper Giant Resources. Harris says copper is moving from a traditional cyclical commodity into a structural shortage story because demand is being layered from electrification, the shift away from oil and coal, and especially AI/data centers, while new mine supply is constrained by declining grades, risk-averse majors, and long development timelines. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Copper is being framed as a structural shortage, not just a cyclical trade.
  2. AI/data centers and electrification are the key incremental demand drivers.
  3. The speaker thinks copper inventories are extremely thin and mine lead times are too long to fix supply quickly.
  4. Makoa is presented as unusually attractive because it is large, near surface, high grade, and molybdenum-rich.
  5. The company is working toward a preliminary economic assessment as a major valuation catalyst.
  6. He sees M&A and big-miner behavior as confirmation that the sector is tightening.
  7. Colombia is described as manageable jurisdictional risk if execution and political timing line up.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically bullish copper, but the trade is crowded enough that the next catalyst matters more than the headline narrative. For Copper Giant, the immediate watch is drill progress and the path toward a PEA; any delay or weak resource update would undercut the setup.

  • The immediate setup is a copper-bullish interview narrative, with inventory scarcity used as the headline catalyst.
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  • Near-term company focus is the ongoing large drill program at Makoa and the move toward a preliminary economic assessment.
  • Watch for drill results and any update that helps convert the inferred resource into measured and indicated.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the base case is continued sector interest if copper tightness and AI-linked demand stay in the foreground. The key test is whether Makoa can keep expanding while advancing economics; that is what would justify a higher valuation.

  • Over the next several weeks to months, the base case in the interview is continued copper strength if AI/data center demand remains firm and supply stays constrained.
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  • The key confirmation signal for Copper Giant would be continued resource growth plus progress toward the PEA, which would help underpin valuation.
  • A change in view would likely come from weaker global growth, a major delay in project advancement, or a broad commodity selloff.
Long term

The structural view is that copper is moving into a regime where long lead times and limited substitution make high-quality deposits strategically important. If that regime persists, advanced copper assets should command a premium, especially those with scale, grade, and byproduct value.

  • The structural thesis is that copper has entered a generational super cycle driven by electrification, AI infrastructure, and energy transition.
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  • Mine supply is seen as structurally difficult to replace because discovery, permitting, and development can take a decade or more.
  • If the speaker is right, the main long-term implication is that high-quality copper deposits become strategically important assets for majors, governments, and industrial supply chains.
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Key claims (9)

BULLISH Commodity scarcity Copper

The world has only about two weeks of copper supply in stockpiles.

Used to illustrate how tight above-ground inventories are versus industrial demand.

BULLISH AI-driven demand Copper

AI and data centers are a major new layer of copper demand that could drive structural shortages.

The speaker repeatedly says data centers and AI create non-negotiable growth in copper use.

BULLISH Supply constraints Copper

New copper mines can take nearly 20 years to develop, which makes supply response very slow.

Used as a key explanation for persistent deficits and delayed new supply.

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Assets discussed (12)

Copper
BULLISH commodity

Presented as in structural shortage with only about two weeks of global stockpiles and rising demand from electrification and AI.

Makoa project
BULLISH other

Described as a tier-one scale, near-surface, high-grade copper-molybdenum project with a path toward a preliminary economic assessment and possible production in five years.

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Interview (18 Q&A)

copper shortage

What happens when you're out of copper?

The speaker says he doesn't know what happens, then explains that lights don't turn on when you want them in new places, and that this structural supply problem is why copper pricing has shown resilience and is expected to break free long-term. Makoa is positioned as one of the new producing mines in a cycle that desperately needs new supply.

copper supply challenges

Talk to us about the copper sector and the supply challenges it's facing, how that's intensifying and why we need copper so badly.

Copper has always been associated with global growth as Dr. Copper, but new layers of demand are emerging beyond cyclical economic growth. The world needs more energy (electrification), we're moving away from oil and coal, and data centers/AI represent non-negotiable growth where nations race to build bigger facilities. Growth has mostly come from brownfields over the last 14-15 years with little new discovery, and it now takes almost 20 years to build a new mine, so the world is waking up to a structural shortage.

copper project scarcity

Why are there so few high-grade copper deposit projects? Why is it so difficult to find and get a copper mine up and running?

The easy discoveries were made early — things close to surface in places like Chile. Copper mines cost several billion dollars which means risk, so major mining companies have been risk-averse, avoiding the spending needed for new discoveries while instead squeezing more out of existing mines. The average grade in copper mines has gone down by half over the last 15-20 years, so even if we mine the same amount of copper, we need to move twice as much rock.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The claim that the world has only about two weeks of copper supply is rhetorically powerful but not fully sourced or context-qualified here.
  • The speaker treats large demand growth from AI/data centers as durable, but the pace and magnitude remain uncertain.
  • He argues substitutes are limited, but some applications do use aluminum and the extent of substitution pressure is not deeply tested.
  • The bullish reading on M&A is directional, but the evidence cited is still a small sample of transactions.
  • The timeline to production within five years is presented as possible, but no detailed permitting, funding, or construction schedule is provided.
  • He downplays jurisdictional risk by pointing to examples of mines built in riskier countries, but that does not eliminate Colombia-specific execution risk.

Topics

copper supply crunchAI and data center demandelectrificationMakoa projectmolybdenum byproductColombia jurisdictionmining M&Aresource developmentproject valuationcommodity super cycle

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