Walter Isaacson argues SpaceX could become the next major market story as it expands from reusable rockets and Starlink into moon infrastructure, space data centers, and eventually broader space-based services. The hosts and Isaacson are skeptical about timing, but they broadly agree the company’s ambition, revenue base, and optionality are real.
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This CNBC clip is a discussion with Walter Isaacson, introduced as Elon Musk’s biographer, about SpaceX’s IPO, valuation, and the company’s future addressable market. Isaacson says Musk has shifted from a Mars-first vision to a more immediate plan to build a permanent base on the Moon, and he frames the lunar effort as part of a broader race involving SpaceX, Blue Origin, NASA, and China. He says SpaceX will be “the new AI by 2027” when it begins building on the Moon, and he expects China to establish a lunar base by roughly 2029 or 2030. The conversation centers on how Musk tends to start with an audacious goal and then “backfill” with a commercially viable model, citing examples like reusable Falcon 9 rockets, Starlink, and the idea of data centers in low-Earth orbit or on the Moon. …
Tactically, the setup is bullish on SpaceX sentiment around the IPO, but the trade is vulnerable if investors focus on valuation, time-to-revenue, or the more speculative space-data-center story. Near-term attention should stay on Starlink and other already-monetizing businesses as the anchor.
Over the next few months, the base case is that SpaceX remains a major story if investors believe revenue can compound while the Moon/Artemis narrative builds. Confirmation would come from clearer commercial traction; invalidation would come from delays that push the space-infrastructure story too far out.
Structurally, the clip points to space becoming an infrastructure and compute frontier, with satellites, launch, and eventually off-Earth facilities as a serious economic layer. If that regime develops, SpaceX could be viewed as one of the foundational platforms of the space economy rather than just a launch provider.
SpaceX will be the new AI by 2027 when it starts building a permanent base on the Moon.
Isaacson explicitly forecasts SpaceX as the next major market story tied to lunar infrastructure.
The lunar race is not just SpaceX versus Blue Origin; it is a broader collaboration with NASA through the Human Landing System and Artemis.
He reframes the competitive narrative into a mixed competition/collaboration structure.
China is behind now but may still build a lunar base by 2029 or 2030.
Isaacson gives a specific geopolitical timeline for China’s lunar ambitions.
Where's China on this?
Isaacson says China is a bit behind but could build a base by 2029 or 2030, which he says adds urgency to the U.S. lunar effort.
When you first started your biography of Elon Musk, were these things that you thought were realistic goals?
Isaacson says he believed in Falcon 9 but not many of Musk’s other claims at first; he was skeptical until he saw them work, including rocket landing and reuse.
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