Chris Vermeulen argues the market is in a risk-on rebound that could extend to new highs in the near term, but he is skeptical of chasing it here because sentiment looks crowded and overextended. He remains constructive on equities tactically, cautious on Bitcoin as still bearish, and expects a much better long-term opportunity in gold and silver after a deeper correction.
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In this interview on David Lin’s channel, Chris Vermeulen says the market has shifted into a sharp V-shaped rebound after a late-March low that he views as an intermediate-cycle bottom. He points to a 6–7 day S&P 500 winning streak, strong intraday rebounds after the Monday gap-down on Middle East headlines, and broad risk-on behavior in microcaps, small caps, Bitcoin, silver, and semiconductors. In his view, this reflects FOMO and a push toward all-time highs rather than a stable long-term reset. He says his team had exited equities before the selloff, then re-entered and recently took partial profits, leaving the portfolio about 45% long. He expects the S&P 500 to be able to grind a few percent higher, with a short-term pause or pullback likely at resistance before another attempt at highs. …
Near term, the tape still favors risk assets, but the move is stretched and likely to pause or chop before a fresh attempt at highs. The trade is crowded enough that any disappointment could trigger a fast reset, especially in semis, small caps, and Bitcoin.
Over the next few weeks to months, the base case is continued equity resilience with intermittent pullbacks, while metals remain more of a watch-for-reset trade than a confirmed hedge. Confirmation would come from a clean consolidation above resistance; invalidation would be a failed breakout and broader risk-off reversal.
Structurally, he sees a late-cycle regime where resource-sensitive markets outperform and precious metals eventually offer a major second-chance entry after a deeper washout. The lasting implication is that current strength may be more of a distributionary melt-up than the start of a fresh low-volatility bull regime.
The market is in a short-term risk-on rebound, with stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and yields all moving in a way that suggests renewed speculation and appetite for risk.
He points to the intraday moves and the rotation away from defensive sectors as evidence of a risk-on regime.
The S&P 500 likely has room for another 2-4% upside and may test or slightly exceed all-time highs in the next few sessions.
He bases this on cycle lows, follow-through after a multi-day winning streak, and short-term momentum on the charts.
The recent rally is being amplified by FOMO and short covering near resistance, which could lead to a short pause or pullback before further upside.
He explicitly says the red indicator spiked and that traders are chasing price into resistance.
What is causing the current rebound and consolidation in the stock market?
Chris says a larger market cycle is at work: multiple time cycles bottomed at the end of March, and the market then staged a strong recovery. He says the recent rally and rebound from Monday’s selloff suggest resilience and point toward higher prices, though he expects some short-term chop.
Is the S&P 500 still overbought enough to trigger profit-taking or shorting?
He thinks the market is close to all-time highs and may run another 2-4% higher, possibly more. But he also says it is a little overextended now and could pull back for a day or two before continuing higher.
Has anything happened in the last two weeks that has shifted your sentiment from more bearish to more bullish or vice versa?
The guest says his strategy tracks eight types of money flows across markets, and there has been a shift of people moving away from defensive spaces and into risk-on assets. Big institutions and big money have been positioning for a move higher over the past week and a half. He notes gold is not performing as a safe haven, but big money flows are moving into growth stocks like semiconductors. He adds that precious metals have short-term upside potential but the dominant flow is toward growth.
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