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Can the housing crisis be fixed or is this the new normal? | That's Business with Alan Kohler

Channel: ABC News (Australia) Published: 2026-05-21 22:30
ABC News (Australia)

A long-form ABC Australia interview with Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz argues Australia’s housing crisis is fundamentally a supply problem with multiple contributing factors, and that policy should prioritize more dwellings, better infrastructure, and productivity gains rather than relying mainly on demand-side measures.

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Detailed summary

The transcript is an interview on ABC Business Daily / That's Business hosted by Alan Kohler with Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz, chair of the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council and former CEO of Mirvac. The discussion centers on Australia’s housing affordability crisis, the National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million homes over five years from mid-2024, and why the system is falling short. Lloyd-Hurwitz says the crisis is decades in the making, driven by a mix of underbuilding, tax settings, migration, planning, land release, infrastructure, construction costs, and labor shortages rather than any single culprit. A major theme is that supply-side reform is the only durable answer. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Australia’s housing affordability problem is presented as a structural underbuilding issue, not a single-policy failure.
  2. The National Housing Accord is behind schedule; the council’s forecast of net supply is far below the 1.2 million target.
  3. Supply-side fixes dominate the interview: infrastructure, planning, construction-code reform, labor, productivity, and modular construction.
  4. Demand-side tax changes may reduce speculation, but their market effects are uncertain and could shift behavior rather than clearly increase supply.
  5. The speaker does not expect house-price-to-income ratios to return to old norms; the likely goal is stabilization, not reversal.
  6. A larger rental market and more institutional rental ownership are viewed as increasingly important.
  7. Public or social housing may need a bigger role because the private market will not supply it on its own.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically, the setup is still supply-constrained: policy headlines may lift sentiment, but actual building activity is the bottleneck. Near-term risk is that approvals and funding announcements outpace real commencements, so housing affordability and rents stay tight.

  • Near-term focus is on how investors and builders react to tax and policy changes, especially around capital gains tax, negative gearing, and infrastructure funding.
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  • Approvals may keep rising before commencements and completions catch up, so the headline numbers can stay misleading in the short run.
  • Watch whether the $2.1bn federal infrastructure package and state-level reforms translate into actual starts rather than just announced supply.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the likely path is slow improvement in the pipeline rather than a clean fix; the key validation is whether reforms, infrastructure, and code simplification convert into starts and completions. If labor and feasibility constraints do not ease, the sector stays stuck in a high-cost, low-responsiveness regime.

  • Over the next several weeks or months, the base case is gradual improvement in approvals and reform momentum, but only uneven progress in starts and completions.
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  • The council’s view implies the system may be moving in the right direction without catching the target in time; the critical confirmation signal is conversion of approvals into finished dwellings.
  • If skilled labor supply improves, costs ease, and planning processes speed up, the shortfall could narrow meaningfully.
Long term

Structurally, the interview argues Australia has moved into a more expensive housing regime where old ownership ratios may not return. The lasting implication is a bigger role for rental housing, institutional capital, and possibly public/social housing to support access and tenure security.

  • The transcript implies Australia is shifting into a structurally higher-price housing regime, where old affordability ratios may not return.
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  • Longer term, the housing system may need to rely more on rental tenure, institutional rental ownership, and some public/social housing to provide stability.
  • The lasting issue is not just price level but distribution: housing wealth becomes increasingly concentrated among owners and inherited-access households.
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Key claims (9)

BEARISH housing supply Australian housing market

Australia has underbuilt housing for decades, which is the core reason the housing crisis has become so severe.

The guest explicitly says the country has underbuilt for decades and links that to the affordability crisis.

NEUTRAL housing affordability Australian housing market

The housing problem is multifactorial, with no single culprit such as migration, tax, construction costs, planning, land release, or infrastructure.

She repeatedly lists multiple causes and rejects single-factor explanations.

BULLISH policy Australian housing market

Demand-side policies tend to push prices up, so the real policy work has to focus on supply.

She contrasts 'seductive' demand-side measures with supply-side persistence.

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Assets discussed (8)

National Housing Accord
NEUTRAL other

Policy framework for the 1.2 million homes target; central subject of the interview.

1.2 million homes target
BULLISH other

Presented as a supply-boosting policy objective, though the speaker says it is likely to be missed in the target period.

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Speakers

HOST Alan Kohler GUEST Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz

Interview (25 Q&A)

housing policy

Are you surprised that housing policy has become a focus of both major parties?

She says it's been a long time coming, with decades of underbuilding and a growing policy focus during the housing accord period across all governments. She frames the current attention as an extension of that trend rather than a sudden shift.

demand vs supply

Is focusing on both demand and supply a good thing, and has it taken too long?

She says policy must consider both the total level of demand and the ways demand-side incentives can push prices up. She argues the difficult, patient work is on supply.

housing causes

Is the housing crisis mainly caused by tax and wealth distribution, or by population and supply issues?

She says there is no single culprit. The problem is multifaceted and includes migration, tax, construction costs, planning, land release, and infrastructure, all interacting together.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The interview relies heavily on Treasury modeling and council forecasts that are presented as directional rather than proven, especially on the effects of tax changes.
  • The assumption that infrastructure spending will translate into a specific number of homes is treated cautiously, and the exact conversion ratio is not independently validated.
  • The 1.2 million target is described as galvanized policy, but the transcript does not show evidence that the target itself was derived from a transparent demand forecast.
  • Claims that negative gearing changes are pro-supply remain speculative because consumer and investor behavior under the new settings is explicitly described as untested.
  • The speaker frames housing affordability as unlikely to revert, but the transcript offers limited empirical justification beyond long-run historical patterns and current modeling.

Topics

housing affordabilityNational Housing Accordhousing supplytax policynegative gearingcapital gains taxinfrastructure fundingconstruction productivitymodular housingrental market

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