The speaker argues that U.S. housing has shifted decisively into a buyer’s market, using Redfin’s seller-vs-buyer gap and Zillow’s forecast revisions as evidence. He extends that thesis to renting, saying 2026 should be a strong year for renters and a good year to negotiate on both home purchases and leases, while warning that prices can still fall further and that affordability remains uneven by market.
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This video is a housing-market commentary centered on Redfin and Zillow’s 2025-2026 outlooks. The speaker says Redfin’s data shows a historic surplus of sellers over buyers, with roughly 37.2% more sellers than buyers in November 2025, the largest gap since 2013. He interprets that as a clear buyer’s market, especially in metros like Austin, San Antonio, Nashville, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach, while noting only seven of the 50 largest metros are still sellers’ markets. He argues that the imbalance is likely to persist into 2026 because affordability is only improving slightly, inventory remains elevated, and buyers are still pulling back. He says home sales may tick up modestly next year, but only because some marginal buyers will re-enter if prices soften, rates ease a bit, and wages help a little. …
Near term, the setup still favors buyers and renters: inventory is high, demand is soft, and negotiation power is improving. The tactical risk is that prices can keep slipping after purchase, so the best entry is deal-specific rather than broad market timing.
Over the next few months, the base case is a slow, uneven housing market with only a modest sales pickup and continued price weakness in weaker metros. The view would be validated by ongoing seller concessions and limited buyer re-engagement; stronger-than-expected economic improvement would be the main invalidation.
Structurally, the video argues housing is moving into a lower-return, more negotiable regime where affordability and cash flow matter more than appreciation. If that regime persists, both ownership and renting become increasingly market-specific rather than one-directional bets on rising prices.
Redfin shows about 37.2% more sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market as of November 2025, roughly 530,000 more sellers than buyers.
He cites this as the central evidence that the market has moved into buyer territory.
The housing market is currently a buyer’s market by Redfin’s definition and has been for well over a year.
He interprets Redfin’s thresholds as proof that buyers have the advantage.
Home sales are likely to tick up slightly in 2026 as affordability improves at the margin.
He expects some marginal buyers to return because prices, rates, and wages may improve a little.
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