Razan Hilal argues the U.S. dollar index is sitting at a major long-term support zone, with near-term direction hinging on Middle East/Iran negotiations and the next FOMC meeting. She presents two scenarios: a support hold and rebound that would keep the broader dollar uptrend intact, or a breakdown that could open much lower DXY levels and support global currencies and metals.
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This is a technical-and-macro market update focused on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Razan Hilal, identified on-air as a market analyst with Forex.com live from Dubai, says the dollar has dropped into a key support zone after improving Middle East sentiment pressured the dollar and lifted broader risk assets. She frames the current area as an important confluence: a shorter-term support band around 98 to 95 that has repeatedly rejected price since June 2025, plus a longer-term structure anchored by an 18-year trendline and the lower boundary of an uptrending parallel channel originating from the 2008 financial crisis lows. Her base view is that the long-term DXY trend remains bullish unless the index breaks decisively below that channel and specifically under the 97 to 95 area. …
Tactically, the dollar is at a make-or-break support zone and could snap higher if geopolitical risk stays elevated into the Fed. A continued relief rally in Middle East tensions would keep the index vulnerable to another leg lower.
Over the coming weeks, the base case is a range decision: either DXY stabilizes and reclaims resistance, or it loses the 97-95 band and opens a larger correction. Confirmation will come from how price reacts around 100.60 and from Fed sensitivity to inflation risk.
Structurally, the speaker is saying the dollar still sits inside a secular uptrend unless a multi-year rising channel breaks. If that regime fails, it would signal a more durable shift toward USD diversification and strength in other currencies and precious metals.
The U.S. dollar index has fallen into a key support zone after improving Middle East sentiment pressured the dollar.
Opening setup for the entire analysis.
The 98 to 95 area is a critical support band that has repeatedly rejected price since June 2025.
Specific technical level and history given by speaker.
The long-term DXY structure aligns with an 18-year trendline and an uptrending channel from the 2008 crisis lows.
Speaker describes confluence with secular chart structure.
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