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EUR/USD Bulls Face a Critical Test as Resistance Tightens This Week

Channel: StoneX Published: 2026-04-15 08:57
StoneX

Michael Bro of StoneX gives a multi-timeframe technical update on EUR/USD, arguing the pair is at a major resistance inflection zone after a three-week rally and could resume higher only if it breaks above 1.1826, while downside should hold 1.1667 for the bullish case to remain intact.

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Detailed summary

This video is a technical, multi-timeframe review of EUR/USD by Michael Bro, senior market analyst at StoneX. He says EUR/USD has posted a third consecutive weekly advance and is now testing a major resistance cluster after rebounding from a January pullback off a longer-term resistance zone. On the monthly chart, he frames the move as part of a broader multi-year uptrend, noting the pair pulled back after hitting confluent resistance tied to a 100% extension from the 2022 lows and a 38.2% retracement of the 2008 decline. On the weekly chart, he says the recent rally has carried price back above the yearly open and the 2025 high-week close, but the advance is stalling just ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the year-to-date range at 1.1826, which he treats as lateral resistance. …

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Main takeaways

  1. EUR/USD is in a broader uptrend, but the latest rally is pressing directly into a major resistance cluster.
  2. The key breakout level is 1.1826; a close above it would signal continuation of the larger bullish trend.
  3. If the pair fails here, the first important support is 1.1745 and the stronger bullish invalidation area is 1.1667-1.1672.
  4. Momentum is not yet overbought and no major daily divergence has appeared, so the move is extended but not fully exhausted.
  5. Near-term macro catalysts are sparse, so price may react sharply to US retail sales, eurozone PMI, and Middle East geopolitics.
  6. The speaker treats the current zone as an inflection point rather than a trend reversal call.

Market read by horizon

Short term

EUR/USD is tactically stretched into a heavy resistance band, so the immediate risk is a stall or pullback unless price can reclaim and close above 1.1826. Traders are watching 1.1745 first and 1.1667-1.1672 as the key downside risk zone.

  • EUR/USD is testing immediate resistance around 1.1813-1.1826 over the next few days.
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  • A close above 1.1826 is the near-term bullish trigger for continuation.
  • Initial pullback support is 1.1745; losing that exposes the deeper support band at 1.1667-1.1672.
Mid term

The base case over the next several weeks is a continuation higher only if the pair confirms a breakout above 1.1826; otherwise, EUR/USD likely chops under resistance while digesting the recent run. A breakdown through 1.1667 would shift the setup from bullish consolidation to a failed rally.

  • Over the coming weeks, the base case remains a broader EUR/USD uptrend if the market can hold above the 1.1667-1.1672 support zone.
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  • A sustained break and close above 1.1826 would validate that the corrective phase is complete and open a path toward 1.1918 and potentially 1.2200.
  • Failure at resistance without a meaningful break lower would keep the pair range-bound while it digests the recent rally.
Long term

Structurally, the speaker still treats EUR/USD as part of a broader multi-year uptrend rather than a cyclical top. The lasting implication is that long-horizon trend-followers should view pullbacks as buyable only while the higher-timeframe support framework holds.

  • The speaker views EUR/USD as operating within a multi-year uptrend rather than a broken trend.
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  • The January rejection from long-term confluence resistance and the current rebound are framed as normal behavior within a larger secular structure.
  • If 1.1826 gives way on a closing basis, it would reinforce the idea that the long-run trend remains intact and capable of extending higher.
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Key claims (10)

0:15
BULLISH EUR/USD

EUR/USD has posted a third consecutive weekly advance but is set to snap a 7-day rally today.

This frames the recent trend and immediate pause in the move.

0:25
BEARISH EUR/USD

January marked a major resistance rejection zone based on long-term confluence between extension and retracement levels.

The speaker ties the January pullback to multiple higher-timeframe technical levels.

1:15
BULLISH EUR/USD

The weekly rally has pushed EUR/USD back above the yearly open and the 2025 high-week close.

This is the speaker's weekly-chart confirmation of the rebound.

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Assets discussed (5)

EUR/USD
BULLISH fx

Speaker frames the pair as still in a broader uptrend and says a close above 1.1826 would mark resumption of that uptrend.

US retail sales
NEUTRAL other

Mentioned as an upcoming macro data catalyst that could move EUR/USD.

Unlock the full asset map (3 more) See all assets mentioned, their directional bias, and the exact reasoning. Unlock asset map

Speakers

SPEAKER Michael Bro

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The bullish case is largely technical and depends on level confirmation; no fundamental EUR-specific driver is provided to justify why 1.1826 should break.
  • The discussion mentions sensitivity to the Iranian war and Strait of Hormuz developments, but does not explain the direct transmission channel to EUR/USD beyond generic risk sentiment.
  • The statement that momentum is not overbought and no divergence exists is asserted without showing indicators or historical comparison, so it is hard to verify from the transcript alone.

Topics

EUR/USD technical analysismulti-timeframe chart reviewresistance and support levelstrend continuationmomentum and divergenceyearly open and retracement levelspitchfork / extension analysismacro catalystsMiddle East risk

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