Dale Pinkert argued that rates, the dollar, and market leadership are sending mixed but important signals into the weekend. He leaned cautiously bearish on equities near-term because of bond-market reversals, semis/Bitcoin weakness, and divergences in the S&P/Nasdaq, while still allowing for a larger final melt-up after a pullback.
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This episode was a Friday markets discussion between Maggie Lake and trading coach Dale Pinkert focused on the bond market, rates, equities, energy, commodities, FX, and weekend geopolitical risk. Dale opened with interest rates, saying the bond market had put in an unusual reversal week around major support, which he framed as a possible test line for a new Fed chair. He stressed that the move in the 2-year and 10-year mattered most at the front end, where rate pressure was still visible, but said the bond action may be signaling a shift in inflation/rates expectations or short-covering. He was careful to say it was only one week, not a full thesis. On equities, Dale thought the S&P and Nasdaq were showing potential double-top or divergence patterns, with the key leaders not confirming the broader index highs. …
Near term, the setup looks vulnerable: bond reversals, semis/crypto weakness, and index divergences all raise the odds of a pullback if weekend headlines or early-week follow-through disappoint. The most actionable risk is a failed rally in leadership that drags the S&P toward 7,100.
Over the next several weeks, the base case is a corrective drop first, followed by a reassessment of whether the bull market can resume. If the pullback holds key support and leadership stabilizes, he would treat it as a reset rather than a cycle top.
Structurally, he still seems to believe the secular bull is not over and that any correction could precede a final upward phase. The larger regime implication is persistent volatility around rates, a stronger dollar bias, and continued leadership from macro-sensitive assets rather than broad complacency.
The bond market just produced an unusual reversal week near major support, which could be an important test for the new Fed chair.
He repeatedly emphasized the reversal at the 82 area in bonds and framed it as a 'challenge line' for the new Fed chair.
Front-end rates are still under pressure even though bonds have rallied, so the market does not yet look like rates have peaked.
He pointed to the 2-year as the key locus of rate pressure and said the setup still did not look like a durable peak in rates.
The S&P 500 may be forming a double top and could pull back toward 7,100, with 6,900 as a deeper downside target.
He explicitly described the S&P as a potential double top and gave downside targets of 7,100 and 6,900.
By low, are you talking about price-yield or yield-price?
Dale said he meant the bond price low and explained the move as a rare reversal week in bonds at major support.
Is it really coincidence with the new Fed chairman?
Dale said it may be front-running, short covering, or a policy read-through, but he insisted the main question is whether the bond move gets follow-through.
What makes me think that this is a top, but not the top?
He answered that it is a 'confirmed high,' implying a top may be in place but not necessarily the final top.
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