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The Real Reason France Took All Its Gold Back from the U.S. | Andy Schectman & Michelle Makori

Channel: Miles Franklin Media Published: 2026-04-15 15:24
Miles Franklin Media

Michelle Makori interviews Andy Schectman about gold repatriation, declining trust in U.S. institutions, central-bank gold buying, and why he thinks the global monetary system is shifting toward gold and away from Treasuries and the dollar. The discussion also branches into Iran-related energy risk, private credit stress, and AI/cybersecurity concerns at major banks, with Schectman arguing these reinforce the case for gold and commodities.

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Detailed summary

This is a long-form interview centered on the case that gold is regaining prominence as a sovereign reserve asset because trust in U.S.-centered financial plumbing is weakening. The opening discussion focuses on France’s reported repatriation/restructuring of 129 metric tons of gold from the New York Fed system to Paris. Makori frames it as a technical bar-standardization move; Schectman frames it as a trust and sovereignty signal that fits a broader pattern of repatriation by Germany, Hungary, Turkey, Poland, Austria, India and others. …

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Main takeaways

  1. France’s gold repatriation is framed as a trust-and-sovereignty signal, not just a technical rebar standardization move.
  2. Schectman argues central banks are moving from paper reserves into physical gold because gold has no counterparty risk.
  3. He sees a broader monetary shift away from U.S. Treasuries and dollar dependence toward neutral settlement assets and alternative payment rails.
  4. He dismisses claims that gold has lost safe-haven status, blaming paper-market deleveraging and ETF mechanics instead.
  5. He thinks Iran/energy disruption, higher inflation, and Fed monetization pressures all strengthen the gold case.
  6. He sees private credit stress and AI/cyber risk as additional signs of systemic fragility.
  7. He views commodities, especially gold miners and streamers, as increasingly favored by institutions for the rest of the decade.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically, the setup is constructive for gold and related commodities if Iran/energy risk stays elevated and physical delivery data remains strong; the main near-term risk is paper-market volatility and a crowded long getting shaken out.

  • Watch for continued headlines around France/Germany-style gold repatriation and any new central-bank buying reports.
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  • The immediate macro catalyst is the Iran/Strait of Hormuz situation, especially if energy/shipping disruption worsens.
  • Near-term gold price action may stay volatile if paper-market deleveraging, ETF rebalancing, or margin changes continue.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the interview’s base case is that weaker Treasury demand, continued central-bank buying, and persistent geopolitical stress keep the gold bid intact. Confirmation would come from more repatriation, firmer delivery demand, and any Fed step toward easier policy; a meaningful de-escalation in energy and inflation risk would weaken the case.

  • Over the next several weeks to months, the base case in the interview is that trust erosion keeps pushing sovereigns and institutions toward physical gold and away from dollar assets.
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  • If Treasury demand weakens further and yields rise, Schectman thinks that becomes the main forcing function for Fed monetization and a renewed gold leg higher.
  • If energy prices remain elevated or the Iran conflict persists, inflation pressure should bleed into more sectors and strengthen the precious-metals bid.
Long term

Structurally, the thesis is that the dollar-centered reserve regime is gradually giving way to a more fragmented system where gold functions as a neutral reserve and settlement asset. If that regime shift persists, analog stores of value and hard commodities should remain more important than in the post-1971 era.

  • The structural thesis is a slow regime shift away from a dollar-centric reserve system toward multipolar settlement arrangements with gold as the neutral reserve asset.
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  • Schectman believes the post-1971 monetary order is increasingly unstable because debt, sanctions, and geopolitical fragmentation are undermining trust in U.S. institutions.
  • He sees digitization of money and settlement as creating new cyber and custody vulnerabilities, making physical stores of value more relevant over time.
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Key claims (10)

BULLISH reserve diversification Gold

Global gold reserves have eclipsed valuation-adjusted dollar reserves for the first time since the IMF began tracking in the late 1990s.

Used as an opening proof point that gold is becoming more important than dollar reserves.

BULLISH counterparty risk Gold

France’s gold repatriation shows sovereigns want physical control of reserve assets with no counterparty risk.

Schectman frames the move as evidence of distrust in U.S. custody and the global paper system.

BULLISH reserve shift Gold

Nations are repatriating gold because they no longer trust the COMEX, LBMA, U.S. institutions, or dollar-based custody systems.

He cites Germany, Hungary, Turkey, Poland, Austria, India, and France as part of a broader pattern.

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Assets discussed (10)

Gold — XAU
BULLISH commodity

Schectman argues gold is gaining reserve-asset relevance, is being repatriated and accumulated by central banks, and will benefit from trust erosion and potential Fed easing.

US dollar — USD
BEARISH fx

The speaker says trust in the U.S. and dollar system is deteriorating and that countries are shifting away from dollar settlement.

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Interview (25 Q&A)

gold repatriation

What does France repatriating its gold signal about trust in the financial system?

Andy Shechman says it fits a broader trend of central banks repatriating gold and reducing exposure to counterparty risk. He argues the move reflects declining trust in U.S. institutions, the New York Fed, and market infrastructure like the LBMA and COMEX.

gold history

Why was foreign gold stored in the United States after World War II?

He explains that after World War II the U.S. offered to hold allied gold safely, with countries then receiving dollars and buying U.S. Treasuries. The arrangement made sense because the dollar was treated as effectively as good as gold, until the system broke down around 1971.

germany gold

If Germany repatriates its gold, what would that mean?

He says it would not be surprising and thinks countries would be smart to bring their gold home. He links that to weaker trust in bullion markets and to a broader shift away from dollar-linked trade and reserves.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The France story is presented as evidence of distrust, but Makori also notes the stated rationale was a technical standardization/rebar issue; the trust interpretation is plausible but not proven by the transcript alone.
  • Schectman treats the gold price drop during war shock as mostly paper-market noise, but he does not directly address alternative explanations for why gold underperformed equities in that window.
  • He assumes the Fed will eventually have no choice but to monetize/QE, but the transcript does not supply a concrete policy trigger or timing.
  • The cyber/AI discussion is speculative and heavily alarmist; the transcript offers little hard evidence that the specific model named will destabilize the system.
  • His claim that the mainstream is ignoring delivery demand and that prices are “orchestrated” is more rhetorical than evidentiary.
  • The argument that the U.S. has broadly lost trust globally is directionally supported by the Munich survey, but the leap from survey sentiment to imminent monetary regime change is not fully demonstrated.

Topics

gold repatriationcentral bank buyingdollar reserve systemTreasury market stressIran and energy riskprivate creditAI cyber riskcommodity rotationCOMEX/LBMA physical deliverymonetary regime shift

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