Gareth Soloway argues the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are weakening on tariff uncertainty, hotter inflation data, and broken technical trends. He is constructive on selective bounces in names like Novo Nordisk, Roblox, and Bitcoin, while staying cautious on the broader index tape.
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The speaker opens by framing himself as a technical analyst-first trader and says the market is being driven lower by weekend tariff changes, specifically a 15% blanket tariff that replaced or conflicted with prior country-specific deals. He says the main issue is uncertainty: possible escalation, refund questions, and the inflation impact of tariffs remaining in place. He then walks through broad market charts. On the S&P 500, he says upside had already been limited by a parallel channel, that an up-sloping trend line has broken, and that a head-and-shoulders pattern is still forming. If the neckline breaks, he expects a downside target just below 6600. On the Nasdaq, he says the same trend-line break applies, with AI-related fear hurting software names. …
Near term, the tape looks vulnerable while tariff uncertainty and broken index trend lines keep sellers in control. The actionable focus is whether the S&P neckline and gold breakout levels confirm, while selective bounce trades are preferred over broad beta longs.
Over the next several weeks, the base case is a choppy-to-lower equity backdrop unless the S&P and Nasdaq reclaim broken trend structure. If inflation uncertainty and tariffs stay elevated, defensive flows should keep supporting gold and make the index setup more fragile.
The longer-term implication is a regime where charts and policy shocks matter more than optimistic narratives. If major equity trend structures finally fail, it would reinforce a shift away from the persistent dip-buying environment and toward a more selective, technically driven market.
The weekend tariff change created uncertainty that is weighing on the stock market.
He says the president imposed a 15% blanket tariff and that markets do not like the unknown.
Hotter PCE inflation is a negative for risk assets and may not improve if tariffs remain in place.
He connects hotter inflation data with tariff effects and says inflation won't really come down if tariffs are still in place.
The S&P 500 has limited upside because a major parallel channel is capping the move.
He says price reached the upper range of the parallel and that upside was limited by technicals.
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