Gareth Soloway argues the S&P 500 is still in a bearish technical setup unless it breaks key resistance around the prior head-and-shoulders highs near 7,040 on SPX/698 on SPY, with a more important ceiling near 7,060–7,100. He frames the day’s action as a test of support/resistance, highlights PCE and Fed minutes as the near-term macro calendar, and gives several trade levels across earnings names and commodities.
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This transcript is a solo market update from Gareth Soloway of Verified Investing / verifiedinvesting.com. He opens with his self-description as a trader who learned technical analysis after being a losing trader, then says his approach is probability-based and focused on charts rather than narratives. He first briefly reviews U.S. economic data released that morning — building permits, durable goods, and housing starts were slightly better than expected — but says none of it is significant enough to drive the market. He says the market is really focused on labor market data and inflation, specifically Friday’s PCE release and the afternoon Fed minutes. He also notes Jerome Powell’s term ending in May and suggests the minutes may not change much. The core market thesis is the S&P 500’s head-and-shoulders pattern. …
Tactically bearish on U.S. equities while SPX/SPY remain under the head-and-shoulders neckline and broader overhead resistance; expect bounces, but he is positioning for failed rallies and downside follow-through unless 7,040 SPX/698 SPY is reclaimed.
Over the next few weeks, the key question is whether weaker labor/inflation-linked data keeps pulling yields down in a way that hurts risk assets rather than helps them. If the index can’t clear the 7,060–7,100 zone, he expects the bearish structure to stay in force and eventually resolve lower.
He is implicitly arguing for a regime where chart structure and independent signal extraction matter more because macro data credibility is deteriorating. On that view, the bigger lasting theme is not one trade level but a more skeptical framework for reading official data, rates, and asset correlations.
The day’s slightly better-than-expected economic data is not significant enough to drive the market.
He explicitly says the releases were minor and not market-moving.
Friday’s PCE inflation report is the key near-term inflation catalyst for markets.
He identifies PCE as the Fed’s favored inflation gauge and a notable upcoming event.
The S&P 500’s head-and-shoulders pattern remains valid because the neckline has not been decisively broken.
He says it was pierced intraday but closed positive, so the pattern is still intact.
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