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IS THE COLLAPSE STARTING? Gold Surges as the Dollar Hits a 15-Year Breakdown Zone

Channel: Verified Investing Published: 2026-01-29 09:28
Verified Investing

Gareth Soloway argues that gold’s surge, a weakening dollar, rising oil/copper, and heavy AI capex spending point to growing stress in the fiat and financial system. He remains bullish on gold, cautious on Bitcoin, and focused on technical levels in the S&P 500, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, SAP, and other names for near-term trading.

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Detailed summary

Gareth Soloway opens by saying he was a losing trader until he mastered technical analysis and now teaches those methods at Verified Investing, where he is chief market strategist. The core of the video is a broad market and macro read: gold is “ripping” above $5,600/oz, which he interprets as a sign that faith in the U.S. financial system and global fiat system is eroding. He says gold is still the pure hedge/insurance policy against currency debasement and fiscal unsustainability, though he expects periodic sharp pullbacks and even a possible large flush to shake out weak hands. He then shifts into chart-based market structure. For the S&P 500, he says price is testing an important overhead zone defined by long-running trend lines from the COVID-era low and a white trend line that was broken and then retested from below. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Gold is being framed as a hedge against fiat-system stress, not just a trade.
  2. The S&P 500 is sitting under a major technical decision zone that could define the next big move.
  3. Microsoft and Meta are being treated as AI-capex bellwethers, with spending now more important than headline growth.
  4. The dollar’s long-term trend is central to the macro view; a breakdown would be a major warning sign.
  5. Oil, copper, and silver are part of the inflation narrative he thinks markets are underestimating.
  6. Bitcoin is not confirming the broader risk-on move and looks weak on his technical framework.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the setup is fragile: the S&P is testing a major overhead zone, Microsoft is pressuring the index, and a rejection could trigger a sharp risk-off move. Gold remains strong, but it is extended and tactically untradeable until it shows exhaustion; hard-asset momentum and tech earnings are the immediate catalysts.

  • Watch whether the S&P 500 can clear the overhead trend-line zone; failure there is, in his view, the immediate risk.
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  • Meta’s gap-fill area around 750-751 is his stated short/fade level if momentum carries it up.
  • Microsoft’s first intraday support is the 438.75 double-bottom; a break would open a deeper gap-window downside.
Mid term

Over the next several weeks to months, the base case is a tug-of-war between AI-driven capex optimism and mounting concern about returns, liquidity, and inflation. If the dollar weakens and commodities keep rising, the market narrative may shift from growth enthusiasm to policy and margin pressure.

  • Over the next several weeks to months, he expects the market to either confirm the current breakout regime or roll over sharply if the S&P loses its overhead resistance zone.
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  • He thinks AI capex can keep supporting GDP and mega-cap spending headlines for a while, but the market may start questioning returns if spending keeps outrunning results.
  • He expects inflation to firm again into the second quarter of 2026 as oil, gas, and copper feed into the data.
Long term

Structurally, the video argues for a regime where fiscal excess and currency dilution keep rewarding ownership of scarce hard assets. The long-run implication is that confidence in the dollar and the broader fiat system may erode gradually, even if equities and AI investment keep masking it for stretches.

  • He sees a durable regime of fiscal excess and currency debasement risk that supports owning hard assets over time.
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  • Gold is treated as a long-duration hedge against loss of confidence in the U.S. financial system and global fiat money.
  • He believes the government’s spending trajectory is structurally unsustainable, regardless of the near-term market reaction.
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Key claims (10)

0:35
BULLISH fiat credibility Gold

Gold above $5,600 per ounce reflects growing loss of faith in the U.S. financial system and global fiat system.

He explicitly links the gold surge to confidence loss in the financial system.

1:00
MIXED Gold

Gold can have significant pullbacks even while the long-term thesis remains intact.

He warns of sharp corrections despite his bullish stance.

3:00
MIXED S&P 500

The S&P 500 is sitting at a key overhead zone that must break for the rally to continue.

He emphasizes the current zone as the critical technical test.

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Assets discussed (17)

Gold — XAU
BULLISH commodity

He says gold is ripping to new highs, is a hedge against fiat debasement, and still looks constructive long term despite possible pullbacks.

Silver — XAG
BULLISH commodity

He says silver is pushing up with gold and may be negating a prior topping tail.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • He treats the gold surge as evidence of systemic loss of faith, but that inference is not uniquely proven by price alone.
  • The claim that AI capex is effectively driving GDP is plausible but overstated without broader data decomposition.
  • His five-year gold target above 10,000 is asserted with conviction, but without a clear model or path dependency.
  • The idea that a dollar trend break would necessarily trigger escalating downside is reasonable technically, but the macro transmission is not fully developed.
  • The link between oil’s January move and a second-quarter inflation spike may be directionally right, but timing and magnitude are uncertain.
  • He dismisses the Fed as a non-event, though policy communication can matter more than he suggests when growth/inflation conditions shift.

Topics

gold rallyUS dollar breakdownS&P 500 technicalsAI capex and GDPMicrosoft earningsMeta earningsinflation outlookoil and copperTesla valuationBitcoin weakness

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