Gareth Soloway argues the market is in a technical squeeze: the S&P 500 is wedged between trend lines, the NASDAQ is lagging, and ADP jobs data suggests an economy that is stuck rather than accelerating or recessioning. He’s cautious on the recently surged memory-chip stocks and silver, constructive on Roblox for a rebound, and watching oil, nat gas, and Bitcoin for confirmation or breakdowns.
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In this trading game plan, Gareth Soloway frames the day around technical levels and a rotating market backdrop rather than a single macro thesis. He says the broad market rallied the prior session, but that move was not led by the mega-cap tech names; instead, the strength came from memory-related semis tied to CES commentary and Jensen Huang’s remarks. He treats that move as potentially a blowoff top, warning that euphoric terms like “super cycle” can be used to justify overextended prices and may become exit liquidity for late buyers. He then shifts to the broader indices. The S&P 500 is described as being squeezed between converging trend lines, creating a wedge pattern that needs to resolve higher or lower. …
Near term, the market looks coiled and likely to choose direction from the current wedge structures rather than drift indefinitely. Tactical caution is warranted in memory semis and silver after sharp moves, while Roblox stands out as a short-term bounce candidate.
Over the next several weeks, the base case is a continuation of sector rotation rather than a clean all-market trend, with confirmation needed from how breadth behaves after the current squeeze resolves. If labor data weakens more materially, Fed expectations and rate-sensitive assets could shift; if not, the market may keep oscillating around technical levels.
Structurally, the transcript argues that narrative excess often peaks late in momentum cycles, while charts provide the cleaner read on regime shifts. The longer-run implication is that leadership can migrate away from mega-cap tech into broader areas, but only if relative strength confirms a durable rotation.
The prior session’s market rally was not led by the mega-cap names.
He explicitly says Tesla, Nvidia, and Google were down even as the market rallied.
Memory stocks surged after CES and Jensen Huang’s comments, but the move may be a blowoff top.
He links the rally to conference commentary and says the move likely represents the last surge before a top.
The S&P 500 is trapped in a tightening wedge and likely needs a breakout or breakdown soon.
He describes converging trend lines and the classic squeeze/toothpaste analogy.
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