Gareth Soloway argues the market is still being driven more by charts than by headline hype: he sees oil setting up for a breakout, warns that S&P 500/Nasdaq are nearing key trend-line inflection points, expects near-term AI/semis to be vulnerable to a sell-the-news reaction, and remains constructive on Bitcoin and a bounce in gold/natural gas from technical support.
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This is a chart-driven market update from Gareth Soloway of Verified Investing. He opens by contrasting headline hype around Venezuela and oil with the actual oil chart, saying oil opened flat and turned positive despite widespread expectations of a sharp gap down. From there he moves through the major indices, arguing that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are being pushed toward important trend lines that could decide whether the next large move is a downside break or another push higher. His base technical framing is bearish-to-cautious on equities, with a potential decline of roughly 11% to former highs if the S&P trend line fails, and potentially deeper downside afterward. He then focuses on the AI complex, saying upgrades and excitement around CES and Jensen Huang/Nvidia may be creating short-term bid support but could also be used as exit liquidity by institutions. …
Near term, the tape looks vulnerable to a narrative reversal: oil is holding despite bearish headlines, while AI/semis may be close to a sell-the-news reaction after CES and Nvidia. The main tactical risk is that the early-year equity bounce gets sold into if key trend lines fail.
Over the next several weeks, he expects the market to decide whether the current S&P/Nasdaq wedge resolves higher or breaks into a larger drawdown. Confirmation of weakness would come from a clean trend-line failure and follow-through selling, while a sustained move above the cited resistance zones would force a reset.
His structural view is that charts are the best defense against narrative manipulation, especially when institutions and media can shape sentiment. More broadly, he sees oil potentially transitioning into a more supportive regime and major equity indices approaching a five-year technical inflection point.
Oil did not gap down on the Venezuela/Maduro news and instead opened flat and turned positive.
He says the market expected oil below $50, but it opened flat and is now positive.
Institutions used the early-year equity rally as exit liquidity on Friday.
He explicitly says he expected institutions to use new-year optimism and IRA/401k inflows as exit liquidity and believes that happened.
The S&P 500 is forming a tightening wedge between long-running trend lines and could break down into a months-long decline.
He describes converging trend lines from the 2020/2021 structure and the 2025 April low, saying a downside break could lead to as much as 20% downside.
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