This episode is a structured QIS/trend-following discussion between host Moritz Seibert and guest Nick Baltas. The main themes are the rise of QIS as a way to express macro views, crowding and implementation concerns, the severe drawdown in commodity curve carry from oil/natural gas shocks, and why trend following has performed well in 2026 thanks to strong moves across benchmark asset classes.
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The conversation opens with a broad update on Baltas’s current focus: he describes being very busy with client work, travel, and a growing personal interest in how AI will change research workflows and day-to-day work. The host then provides a trend-following performance snapshot for 2026, emphasizing that CTAs and other systematic strategies have done well year-to-date while equities have also stayed strong. This framing sets up the episode’s core tension: systematic macro is working, but often in an environment shaped by fast-moving news, inflation concerns, and concentrated market leadership. A large portion of the discussion centers on QIS as an industry and whether it has become a vehicle for expressing macro views rather than a pure uncorrelated return engine. …
Near term, the actionable story is still headline-driven commodity volatility, especially in oil and gas, with trend followers benefitting as long as benchmark markets keep moving. Commodity curve carry remains tactically vulnerable until the curve settles.
Over the next few months, the base case is that QIS stays in demand as an inflation- and regime-expression tool, while trend and carry returns depend on whether the current shock environment gives way to more stable curves and less crowded positioning.
Structurally, the episode argues that systematic investing has become a mainstream way to package macro and factor exposure, with durable premia still present in carry and trend as long as markets continue to pay for bearing real liquidity, supply, and timing risk.
QIS has increasingly become a vehicle for expressing specific macro views rather than just a pure uncorrelated return sleeve.
Baltas says the space has departed from the idea of a generic alpha engine and is now used to express views such as long equities, long oil, or short bonds.
Inflation is the dominant theme shaping systematic positioning and correlations in 2026.
Baltas repeatedly returns to inflation as the main macro tag, linking it to hedging, correlation shifts, and rate debates.
Crowding is real but should be treated as an input into risk premium variation rather than evidence that the strategy is broken.
He argues that many strategies can become crowded and still have durable economics if the underlying source of risk remains intact.
What's been on your radar lately? What's been keeping you busy? What's top of mind?
Nick says he's been very busy with client activity and markets. He's spending his free time exploring how the AI frenzy will impact day-to-day operations and research, going back to coding and building tools for personal life. He's also looking forward to a week of holiday with his family.
Do you see any cyclicality in client interest across your business?
Is there anything you'd like to add about the Wall Street Journal article on QIS and the QIS space gaining visibility?
The guest acknowledges QIS has been getting more visibility and broader use due to technology, data, and trading capabilities. Banks sit between buyers and sellers and can deliver portfolios in various formats (structured notes, capital-protected structures, OTC swaps). The guest says the 'crowded' critique is always the easy finger-pointing response.
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