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Trump says he will not ‘rush into a deal’ with Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz

Channel: LiveNOW from FOX Published: 2026-05-24 16:15
LiveNOW from FOX

The segment says Trump is backing away from the idea of an imminent Iran deal and emphasizing that no one knows the details yet. Guest Paul McClary argues the real near-term focus is a limited, step-by-step framework: reopening the Strait of Hormuz first, then later negotiating nuclear material removal, with Israel and regional security still central.

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Detailed summary

This LiveNOW from Fox segment centers on Trump’s latest Truth Social message about Iran: he says there is no rush, the deal is not finished, and it will be “a good and proper one” unlike Obama’s. The discussion with Politico Pentagon reporter Paul McClary interprets that as a signal that the administration is still shaping the framework and that the public knows very little about the actual terms. The core thesis from the guest is that the deal, if it happens, is likely to be incremental rather than comprehensive, with the Strait of Hormuz likely addressed before the nuclear file is fully resolved. McClary says the White House has been leaking pieces of the emerging framework and that Iran has pushed back on the leaked contours. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Trump is signaling that no final Iran deal is imminent and that the administration is still negotiating basics rather than unveiling a finished agreement.
  2. The guest’s base case is a phased framework: first the Strait of Hormuz, then later the nuclear-material question.
  3. Reopening Hormuz is framed as a tactical and economic relief valve, not the end state.
  4. The nuclear issue remains the main strategic requirement; without it, the deal is portrayed as incomplete.
  5. The Obama comparison is mostly about optics and asset relief, with Trump likely trying to avoid anything that looks like the JCPOA.
  6. Israel’s security concerns and Iran-backed proxies are treated as major constraints on any final package.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, this is a tactical risk-management story: any evidence that Hormuz traffic is normalizing could ease shipping/oil pressure, but the setup stays fragile until the White House shows concrete follow-through. The biggest immediate watchpoint is whether the president’s optimism is backed by an actual operational step or just messaging.

  • Watch for any sign that mines are being cleared or that commercial shipping is moving more normally through Hormuz.
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  • High-level White House meetings over the next 24–48 hours would be the clearest sign that a framework is advancing.
  • If the Strait reopens before a full nuclear agreement, the market may treat that as a partial de-risking rather than a finished deal.
Mid term

Over the next several weeks, the base case is a phased arrangement if talks progress: secure the Strait first, then negotiate a second-stage nuclear package and inspections. That view holds only if Iran starts making visible concessions; otherwise the narrative likely reverts to delay, leverage, and renewed market stress.

  • The likely path is a staged negotiation over weeks to months, not a single grand bargain.
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  • A workable base case is: Hormuz access first, then a 60-day follow-on window for nuclear restrictions and inspections.
  • Confirmation would come from durable shipping normalization and evidence that Iran is making material concessions on uranium.
Long term

Structurally, the transcript frames Iran as a persistent regional security and nuclear-containment problem, not a one-off negotiation. The long-run question is whether the U.S. ends up with durable de-escalation or just a managed pause while Iran preserves strategic deterrence and proxy leverage.

  • The deeper issue is whether Iran is forced to trade away nuclear leverage or whether it retains a North Korea-style deterrent status.
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  • If the U.S. settles for partial restrictions and inspections only, the long-run regime may look like managed containment rather than disarmament.
  • The regional balance of power remains tied to Iran’s proxy network and Israel’s security posture, so any deal has lasting implications beyond Hormuz.
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Key claims (8)

NEUTRAL Iran negotiations Iran deal

Trump is signaling that there is no rush and the Iran deal is not yet fully negotiated.

Directly stated in Trump’s Truth Social remarks quoted in the segment.

BULLISH Iran negotiations Strait of Hormuz

The likely framework is a phased deal, with the Strait of Hormuz addressed before the nuclear issue is fully solved.

McClary repeatedly says the approach may be to 'nip away' at issues one by one.

BEARISH nuclear escalation Iran nuclear program

The nuclear issue is the key condition for any deal; without it, the military operation would be considered a failure.

He says nukes are the 'lynch pin' and the original point of the campaign.

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Assets discussed (5)

Strait of Hormuz
BULLISH other

Reopening the strait would reduce disruption risk for shipping and energy flows, which the guest frames as a near-term positive.

Oil
BEARISH commodity

If Hormuz reopens and shipping normalizes, oil risk premium could ease.

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Interview (7 Q&A)

deal imminence

How imminent is a deal with Iran, and what would it likely include?

Paul McClary says the White House and Iran are leaking conflicting pieces, but the likely framework would focus first on Iran giving up nuclear material. He says the deal would fall short if it did not address the nukes, which he describes as the core objective.

red lines

What are the red lines on uranium enrichment and nuclear concessions?

He says the administration has publicly stuck to the nuclear issue, but the scope may be broader now because officials have also talked about degrading Iran's navy, missiles, and drones. He thinks the key questions are whether the deal covers only nukes or also the Strait of Hormuz and related military steps.

strait signal

Would reopening the Strait of Hormuz signal that a framework deal had been reached?

McClary says opening the strait would be a major development, but not necessarily a full win because it would only return shipping to where it was before the bombing campaign. He says the real issue is whether Iran clears mines and stops threatening ships, which would likely be just one step in a longer process.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The argument assumes the bombing campaign’s whole purpose was nuclear disarmament, but the transcript itself shows shifting objectives toward Hormuz and missile/drone limits.
  • The claim that reopening Hormuz would be a meaningful win is debatable because McClary also says it would just restore conditions that existed before the campaign.
  • The idea that a staged deal is the only practical path is plausible but not evidenced; it is presented as inference from limited reporting.
  • The suggestion that nuclear material might be sent to Russia is speculative and introduces a new set of risks without support from confirmed reporting.
  • The segment treats Iran’s willingness to absorb pain as durable, but offers little concrete evidence beyond general geopolitical analogy.

Topics

Iran deal frameworkStrait of Hormuznuclear materialJCPOA comparisonoil and shipping riskIsrael securityIranian proxiesU.S. military postureregional geopolitics

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