Craig Hemke interviews Chris Vermeulen about a war-driven market backdrop, with oil, rates, the dollar, equities, gold, and silver all tied together by his chart work. Vermeulen argues energy is the only near-term leader, stocks may face another washout, and precious metals could still see a deeper reset before a larger secular move resumes.
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This is a monthly precious-metals outlook segment on Sprott Money hosted by Craig Hemke, featuring Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders. The conversation is dominated by the market reaction to Middle East conflict and the resulting surge in crude oil, which Vermeulen says is the main driver of cross-asset behavior right now. He argues that higher oil could push inflation and yields higher, support the U.S. dollar, pressure equities, and create a broad risk-off move. In that scenario, he expects gold and silver to dip further before offering a better long-term entry point. Vermeulen repeatedly frames the current setup as a tactical danger zone: energy is the only clearly strong sector, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain in downtrends, and investors should be small or sidelined unless they are trading the energy move. …
Near term, the setup is defensive: if oil extends higher, equities may see another flush while the dollar firms and metals can still get shaken out. The most actionable trade cluster is energy strength versus broad-market fragility.
Over the next few weeks to months, the market likely needs either a volatility peak and base formation or a renewed risk-off leg to resolve the current uncertainty. For gold and silver, a deeper pullback would not invalidate the bull case unless it turns into a prolonged failure to reclaim prior breakout zones.
The longer-term regime remains constructive for precious metals in Vermeulen’s view, with secular upside still intact despite violent corrections. The lasting implication is that timing matters: in a major bull cycle, the best returns may come from buying post-reset, not from holding through every euphoric surge.
Crude oil is the main force controlling near-term market behavior.
He says energy is 'really controlling the markets' and will dominate what happens across asset classes.
Oil could extend to roughly $141 per barrel from current levels.
He gives a chart-based target from the previous run and says it implies a 26% move.
Higher oil is likely to lift inflation expectations, interest rates, and the U.S. dollar.
He links oil to inflation, rates, and dollar strength as a connected sequence.
How has the Middle East conflict changed the best asset to own right now?
He says crude oil and the energy space are dominating markets and likely driving everything else. In his view, energy is the only really hot pocket right now, while most other major assets are under pressure or trending down.
Does the current pullback in the Nasdaq suggest a deeper decline is coming?
He thinks the market is repeating a similar cycle to the February 2025 correction and could be setting up for another leg down. He warns that if oil spikes and risk aversion rises, the Nasdaq could see a capitulation washout and a significant further drop.
How far could the Nasdaq fall from here based on your technical levels?
He uses a measured-move/Fibonacci style projection and says the key support area aligns with a previous level. From current levels, he says that would amount to roughly a 10% haircut in the Nasdaq.
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