Jordan Roy-Byrne argues that the pullback in gold, silver, and miners has become more serious in the short run because the 30-year bond yield has broken out to a multi-decade high, which historically pressures precious metals. He still frames the move as an intermediate-term correction inside a secular bull market, not a top, and says the next major buying opportunity should emerge once the correction and breadth washout run their course over the coming weeks or months.
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Jordan Roy-Byrne says the current selloff in gold and silver is now more serious than a routine dip because the 30-year Treasury yield has broken out to its highest level in nearly two decades, and rising long-term yields have historically coincided with weakness in gold. He acknowledges gold was already extremely overbought and due for a correction, but argues the yield breakout is the key new development putting pressure on the precious metals complex. His core thesis is that this remains an intermediate-term correction, not a secular bull-market failure. He repeatedly separates cyclical, intermediate, and secular peaks, arguing that gold versus the S&P 500 has not yet shown the kind of full capital rotation that marked true cyclical tops in the past. …
Near term, the setup is still fragile: rising long yields can keep gold, silver, and miners under pressure, and a deeper flush may not be finished. Traders should expect more volatility before any durable reversal and avoid leverage into the drawdown.
Over the next several weeks to months, the base case is continued correction followed by a washout bottom that resets sentiment and breadth. A sustained turn higher would need yields to stop hurting the sector and miner participation to show exhaustion, after which the bigger bull trend should resume.
Structurally, the speaker believes precious metals remain in a secular bull market with the current pullback representing a mid-cycle reset rather than a top. If that regime holds, the lasting implication is that quality gold and silver miners may still be early in a larger multi-year upside phase.
The current pullback in gold and silver has become more serious because the 30-year bond yield has broken out to a multi-decade high.
He says the yield breakout is the key development and that higher yields tend to pressure gold.
The selloff is still an intermediate-term correction rather than the end of the secular bull market.
He repeatedly distinguishes intermediate, cyclical, and secular peaks and says the secular bull remains intact.
Gold could continue drifting lower into late June or even July before a significant bottom forms.
He says the analog suggests more downside and a bottom may be pushed out by higher yields.
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