Bitcoin Falls Below The Bear Market Resistance Band

Benjamin Cowen’s core thesis is that Bitcoin is still behaving like a classic midterm-year decline, not a durable bull-market breakout. He says Bitcoin has fallen back below the bear-market resistance band on the daily chart, with the weekly picture still unconfirmed because price is only slightly below the 20-week moving average. In his view, the lack of follow-through after the recent bounce is the key tell: unlike 2023, when Bitcoin had more sustained strength before retesting support, this move has the look of a typical midterm-year fakeout. He frames the price action as regime-driven rather than indicator-driven. Cowen repeatedly says the important question is not the exact price target but what cycle the market is in. …

1. Bitcoin is back below the bear-market resistance band on the daily timeframe, and the lack of follow-through makes the recent rally look suspect.
2. Cowen’s base case remains a midterm-year style decline with more weakness likely into late summer or fall, not an immediate trend reversal.
3. Macro conditions matter in the background: fewer expected rate cuts, possible hikes, and Bitcoin’s higher-risk profile versus stocks are still headwinds.
4. The 200-week moving average is viewed as a likely destination or checkpoint later in the cycle, even if it does not hold as support.
5. He thinks the most useful framework is cycle/regime recognition, not exact price prediction.
6. If a lower low prints later this year, Cowen says it may be a better time to think about positioning than celebrating bearishness.

• The claim that the current structure is clearly like 2018 more than 2022 is plausible but not rigorously demonstrated in the transcript; it is mainly asserted through pattern resemblance.
• The idea that Bitcoin will likely bottom in Q4 is a cycle-based forecast with limited fresh evidence beyond historical analogs.
• The assertion that rate hikes are a meaningful macro headwind for at least a few more months is directionally reasonable but presented without explicit data or probabilities.
• The statement that the four-year cycle is the main driver may underweight other possible influences such as liquidity, flows, regulation, or market structure changes.
• The conclusion that the best strategy is simply buy at the end of midterm years and sell at the end of post-halving years is presented as a broad rule, but the transcript does not test its robustness across all regimes.