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Treasury Demand CRUSHED As Gold Secretly Disappears From LBMA | Andy Schectman

Channel: Liberty and Finance Published: 2026-05-27 19:00
Liberty and Finance

Andy Schectman argues that gold and silver are being accumulated by central banks, sovereigns, and large private money because the West’s monetary system, Treasury market, and reserve-currency regime are losing credibility. He sees the current price action as an early-stage bull market where physical metal is moving from price-sensitive holders to stronger hands, while retail remains slow to catch on.

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Detailed summary

Andy Schectman’s core thesis is that the global monetary system is quietly shifting away from dollar/Treasury settlement toward gold-backed or gold-centered arrangements, and that this is already visible in official-sector buying, exchange buildouts, and metal flows. He repeatedly frames gold as the “neutral reserve asset” that will matter once trade and settlement occur outside the dollar system, and he argues that this transition is being advanced methodically by BRICS-linked institutions and emerging exchange infrastructure rather than through any single headline event. He supports that view by pointing to unusually strong central bank buying, citing Goldman Sachs’ upward revisions to gold demand estimates, and saying that reported LBMA outflows do not reconcile with exchange data. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Schectman’s base case is a quiet transition away from dollar/Treasury dominance toward gold-centered settlement.
  2. He sees central bank demand and exchange/settlement buildouts as the clearest evidence of that transition.
  3. He views weak retail demand as normal late-cycle skepticism, not a bearish signal.
  4. He thinks U.S. Treasuries are structurally impaired and have been underperforming for years.
  5. He argues the U.S. may prefer a weaker dollar to restore manufacturing and manage debt.
  6. He recommends hard assets over cash, especially gold and silver, as the currency debasement trade.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the setup is still bullish for gold/silver as long as central-bank buying, physical tightness, and delivery/flow imbalances persist. The tactical risk is a crowded narrative failure if retail never joins and the market pauses before new demand emerges.

  • Watch whether physical gold and silver continue to leave Western venues like LBMA/COMEX while Asian/Middle East demand stays firm.
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  • Near-term retail demand is described as seasonally soft, so lack of public participation is not a bearish signal in his framework.
  • He highlights COMEX deliveries, Shanghai premiums, and large monthly gold/silver withdrawals as immediate evidence to monitor.
Mid term

Over the next few months, he expects the market to keep rewarding hard assets if East/West settlement fragmentation and reserve diversification continue. The view would be invalidated if reported physical demand cools, Treasury demand stabilizes without gold support, or the new exchange/settlement rails prove less consequential than advertised.

  • Over the next several weeks to months, his base case is continued de-dollarization through local-currency trade and gold settlement rails.
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  • He expects the BRICS-linked payment architecture, CIPS, and mBridge-related infrastructure to keep expanding methodically.
  • He thinks Treasury demand can be supported in the near term by stablecoin-linked demand for short-dated bills, even as the long-term reserve role erodes.
Long term

Structurally, he thinks the world is moving into a more multipolar monetary regime where gold regains reserve relevance and the dollar’s role is downgraded but not eliminated. If that regime shift continues, savings in cash are impaired relative to hard assets and long-duration claims become less trustworthy.

  • Structurally, he believes reserve-currency status is being gradually sacrificed to restore U.S. competitiveness and reduce debt pressure.
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  • He sees gold as the enduring neutral reserve asset in a multi-polar monetary regime.
  • His long-run thesis is that the dollar remains important, but less central, while gold becomes the valuation anchor for trade and settlement.
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Key claims (9)

BULLISH de-dollarization Gold

Central banks, sovereigns, and private wealth are accumulating gold because it is the neutral reserve asset in a transitioning monetary system.

He repeatedly says gold is the neutral reserve asset and that the most informed money is buying it quietly.

BULLISH physical gold flows Gold

Gold demand estimates were revised sharply higher because reported LBMA outflows do not match the data being shown elsewhere.

He cites Goldman Sachs revisions and mismatched import/export versus LBMA records.

BEARISH Treasury demand US Treasuries

Treasury demand is structurally weak and Treasuries have been in a historic drawdown.

He says Treasuries have underperformed for 69 months and calls it the worst bear market in history.

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Assets discussed (15)

Gold — XAU
BULLISH commodity

He argues central banks, sovereigns, and private investors are accumulating gold as the neutral reserve asset in a weakening dollar regime.

Silver — XAG
BULLISH commodity

He says silver is also being accumulated, and the specials plus COMEX/London flow commentary frame it as undervalued hard money.

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Speakers

GUEST Andy Schectman HOST Kaiser Johnson

Interview (12 Q&A)

retail demand

Why is the retail gold market still so quiet despite the broader market developments?

Andy says the quiet retail market is actually normal for the early stages of a major bull move. He argues that strong central-bank and institutional buying shows deeper demand, while summer seasonality and tax season also tend to depress retail activity.

BRICS buying

Are BRICS countries coordinating their gold buying, or are they acting separately in their own interests?

Andy says it is both coordinated and individually motivated. He points to huge gold imports by China and Saudi Arabia, and says these countries also share a common desire to reduce dependence on Western financial systems.

dollar reserve status

If the US dollar fully disappears as the world's reserve currency after nearly a hundred years of that status, what does that look like for the United States and Western nations?

The guest says the dollar isn't going away but believes the US would prefer not to be the reserve currency, because that would massively devalue the dollar (helping pay down debt) and potentially bring back manufacturing. He references Judy Shelton's idea of pegging new Treasury bills to gold, and cites Triffin's dilemma — that being the world reserve currency forces a hollowed-out manufacturing base. He argues the US is broke, uneducated, and doesn't make anything, so incentivizing alternatives to the dollar is the right path.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The claim that Western reserve-currency status is being deliberately ‘soft defaulted’ is highly inferential and not directly evidenced in the transcript.
  • Several flow-based assertions rely on selective interpretation of premium, import/export, and delivery data without independent verification in the video.
  • The assertion that Treasuries are the worst-performing asset over a long period is presented without context on the relevant benchmark or methodology.
  • The idea that stablecoins will create durable synthetic demand for short Treasuries is plausible but speculative and heavily policy-dependent.
  • Some geopolitical/financial links between BRICS, mBridge, exchange launches, and a new settlement regime are asserted more strongly than demonstrated.

Topics

gold demandcentral bank buyingLBMA outflowsCOMEX deliveriesde-dollarizationBRICS payment systemsTreasury marketstablecoins and short TreasuriesU.S. manufacturingsilver premiums

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