A live crypto discussion focused on Bitcoin’s weak, sideways 2026 tape and the idea that midterm-year seasonality is still dominating. Ben Cowen and Guy argue the market is boring but structurally normal for this part of the cycle, with Bitcoin likely to keep underperforming until later in the year while other assets—energy, bonds, select equities, and some crypto projects—offer better opportunity cost. They also discuss how big IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI could affect liquidity and index rebalancing, but view them more as a market-structure story than a direct crypto thesis.
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This episode is primarily a conversation about Bitcoin’s 2026 drawdown and how to think about crypto in a boring, midcycle environment. The core thesis from both speakers is that the current tape is not surprising: Bitcoin is behaving like it typically does in a midterm year, with weakness in the first half of the year, possible countertrend rallies, and a better setup later in the year rather than right now. Ben is the most explicit about this, saying the only indicator that really mattered was buying at the end of the midterm year and selling at the end of the post-halving year, and that in midterm years he now “just ignore[s] Bitcoin for the first half of the year.” Guy echoes that the market looks dull but that this fits crypto’s evolution into back-end infrastructure rather than the frontier-tech trade it was in 2021. The reasoning behind that view is mostly cyclical and …
Bitcoin still looks tactically weak, and the immediate risk is more downside or chop before any durable bounce. Near-term trades are better framed around patience, selective alt exposure, or outright rotation rather than aggressive crypto chasing.
Over the next several weeks to months, the base case is continued crypto underperformance followed by a possible summer rally and then a more tradable setup later in 2026. That view holds unless policy shifts meaningfully dovish or risk markets broadly reprice in a way that improves crypto’s liquidity backdrop.
The longer-term regime view is that crypto has matured into infrastructure rather than frontier novelty, which likely means more muted relative returns but a larger durable role in markets. Bitcoin still functions as a monetary debasement hedge for some allocators, but its path is increasingly shaped by macro liquidity and capital rotation.
The current crypto tape is boring and sideways rather than catastrophic or euphoric.
Both speakers describe the market as dull, linear, and exhausting instead of explosive.
Bitcoin is likely to keep underperforming in the first half of the midterm year, with better opportunities later in the cycle.
Ben repeatedly says to ignore Bitcoin early in the midterm year and look for entries later in summer or after it.
Crypto is no longer the market's leading frontier-tech narrative and is being displaced by AI.
Guy says AI is the big technological revolution now and crypto is moving into backend infrastructure.
What are your thoughts on sticking with crypto in this boring, sideways-moving market, and how are you getting through this kind of lame market?
Guy says the dullness reflects crypto moving into its intended phase as backend infrastructure rather than a frontier technology, which makes it less exciting but is a necessary evolution. He notes competition from AI and space IPOs draws attention away. Ben adds that midterm years always feel this way, Bitcoin typically bleeds into June, bounces in summer, and finds a final low in Q4. He points out that without a blowoff top, there's no euphoria to fade, so people turned bearish immediately.
Should we be waiting for more downside in crypto, or should we shift into energy infrastructure, AI plays, and similar sectors instead? And since most indicators failed us last cycle except the four-year cycle, should we just blindly follow that?
Ben expects Bitcoin to keep bleeding against stocks, gold, energy, and manufacturing through midterm years, with a probable pattern of decline into June, a summer bounce, and a final low in Q4. He agrees this boring condition will likely continue. The rest of the answer is not fully captured in this chunk as the question is asked at the very end.
What do you think about crypto assets beyond Bitcoin — is there anything doing well?
Guy agrees with Ben that ignoring crypto for the first half was right. He notes a few high-quality crypto projects are doing well, citing Hyperliquid as one that is genuinely making money and providing something people want to use, but says good performance is very localized to just a handful of projects. He expects more downside in crypto broadly.
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