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LIVE FROM UKRAINE: Is PUTIN WEAKENING? W/ Pearce, Fink, Zabrisky, & Rashkin

Channel: ATP Geopolitics Published: 2026-05-28 12:13
ATP Geopolitics

A live multi-speaker discussion from Ukraine focused on drone warfare, Russian information control, the battlefield situation in Kherson/Odessa, and the view that Ukraine is innovating faster than Russia is adapting. The speakers argue that Putin is under growing pressure, but they repeatedly stress that Ukraine’s leverage comes from military endurance, drone development, logistics disruption, and continued foreign support rather than any near-term collapse of Russia.

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Detailed summary

This is a long, lively roundtable recorded in Ukraine with Yuri Rashkin hosting Jonathan Pearce and Zarina Zabrisky, with the conversation centered on the war in Ukraine and the changing character of drone warfare. The core thesis is that the battlefield has shifted into a drone-dominated environment where Ukrainian adaptation, long-range strike capability, and logistical disruption are reshaping the conflict, while Russia increasingly relies on psychological pressure, propaganda, and sheer persistence rather than decisive battlefield superiority. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Ukraine’s battlefield advantage is increasingly coming from drones, long-range strike adaptation, and logistics interdiction.
  2. Kherson is portrayed as a live testbed for drone warfare and civilian-targeted pressure.
  3. Russian propaganda and social conditioning are framed as central to public passivity and regime durability.
  4. The West is criticized for inventing Russian red lines and responding too timidly.
  5. The speakers see Putin as weaker or cornered, but more dangerous because of that pressure.
  6. Humanitarian conditions in occupied areas are described as severe and urgent.
  7. Aid, drone funding, and political advocacy are presented as the practical response now.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically, the immediate setup is favoring Ukraine’s drone and strike operators, while Russia is trying to answer with more drones, more pressure, and more fear. The risk is a sharp Russian escalation or a political setback in Western aid, but the speakers think Ukraine has the stronger near-term operational momentum.

  • Watch the near-term battlefield impact of fiber-optic and FPV drones, especially where electronic warfare no longer works well.
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  • Kherson and nearby occupied settlements are the immediate humanitarian flashpoints described in the discussion.
  • The pending U.S. aid vote, HR2319, is the clearest political catalyst mentioned.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the likely path in the discussion is continued Ukrainian adaptation and incremental gains in battlefield reach, especially if Western aid and domestic production keep rising. The key question is whether Russia can absorb the pressure without losing logistics, cohesion, or narrative control; if not, the Putin-is-weakening thesis gains traction.

  • Over the next several weeks or months, the base case in the conversation is that Ukraine continues to improve its drone and strike capabilities faster than Russia improves defenses.
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  • A key confirmation signal would be continued degradation of Russian logistics and more frequent Ukrainian strikes reaching deeper behind the front.
  • If Russian troop quality, supply lines, or command cohesion weaken further, the speakers think the narrative of Putin’s weakness becomes more credible.
Long term

Structurally, the transcript argues that Ukraine is forcing a rewrite of modern warfare and that Russian power remains durable only as long as coercion, propaganda, and imperial inertia hold. The long-run implication is a more militarized European security order in which Ukrainian battlefield lessons matter far beyond this war.

  • The transcript argues that the war is accelerating a lasting transformation in modern warfare, with drones, EW, and distributed strike systems becoming central.
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  • Ukraine is framed as emerging from the war with stronger military-industrial capacity and more combat-proven doctrine.
  • Russia is depicted as structurally trapped in an imperial, propaganda-driven model that can endure for a long time but not cleanly modernize.
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Key claims (8)

MIXED warfare evolution drones

Drone warfare has become the defining layer of the conflict, replacing older war assumptions with a sky-centric fight.

Repeated throughout the discussion, especially in the opening technical explanation of drone categories and tactics.

BEARISH battlefield adaptation Kherson

Kherson is effectively a live laboratory for modern warfare, with constant FPV attacks and civilian risk.

Zabrisky provides firsthand reporting and concrete numbers about weekly attacks and the city's condition.

BULLISH drone countermeasures fiber optic drones

Fiber-optic drones reduce the effectiveness of electronic warfare and extend the range at which attacks can be conducted.

The speakers explain that non-radio-emitting drones are harder to jam and can reach farther targets.

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Assets discussed (7)

FPV drones
BULLISH other

Presented as a key Ukrainian tactical advantage and a central tool in drone siege and battlefield disruption.

fiber optic drones
BULLISH other

Described as harder to jam and strategically important, though cost pressures are rising.

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Speakers

HOST Yuri Rashkin GUEST Jonathan Pearce GUEST Zarina Zabrisky

Interview (40 Q&A)

introduction

What brings you to Ukraine this time around, and who are the amazing people sitting next to you?

Jonathan Pierce drove four vehicles and three generators from the UK through Europe to Lviv, then took an overnight sleeper train to Kyiv, spent time there, and traveled to Odesa. This is his third trip to Ukraine.

self-introduction

Zarina, could you introduce yourself and tell us about your work?

Zarina Zabriski is an American journalist based in Herson, Ukraine, and a film director who made a film called 'Herson Human Safari.' She discovered a war crime called 'Human Safari' and continues living in Herson investigating Russian war crimes and a new drone tactic called 'drone siege.'

Kharkiv vs Herson

The population of Kharkiv is growing — greater than before. How does that work?

Zarina explains that there are two different cities: Kharkiv (the second largest city in Ukraine after Kyiv, about 40-50 miles from Russian troops) and Herson (a regional center of 250,000 that is now down to 60,000 and partially ruined). She clarifies the confusion between the two names and notes that Kharkiv is safer now because Ukrainian forces pushed Russian artillery back using HIMARS and electronic warfare.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The speakers disagree on emphasis: whether the discussion should center more on Russia’s weakness or on Ukraine’s strength.
  • They differ on how much to interpret Putin’s behavior psychologically versus in terms of concrete capabilities and military constraints.
  • There is some tension over rebuilding and reconstruction timing: one side stresses urgency of military aid first, while another allows for cautious optimism about postwar recovery.
  • Pearce pushes harder on the idea of Russian red lines being mostly imagined by the West; others are more cautious about escalation mechanics.
  • The conversation does not fully settle how likely a Russian collapse actually is versus a prolonged stalemate or managed imperial endurance.

Topics

drone warfareKhersonoccupied territoriesRussian propagandalearned helplessnessdeterrenceU.S. aid to UkraineEuropean securityhumanitarian crisiscivilian protection

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