RC Fornax CFO Rob Shepherd says the company has moved beyond a difficult post-IPO period and is now seeing improving monthly billings, higher margins, and a stronger defence pipeline. He emphasized 40% half-on-half revenue growth, a shift toward higher-margin outcome-based work, and no immediate need for a fundraise based on current growth and cost stability.
Watch on YouTube ›Get the market thesis, key claims, assets, contradictions, and follow-up questions from any financial video — then unlock a version personalized to your portfolio, watchlist, and favorite speakers.
RC Fornax’s CFO Rob Shepherd argues the company has turned a corner after a difficult FY25, especially the second half after IPO. His core message is that the business is now seeing consistent month-on-month improvement, with headline revenue up 40% half-on-half and margins improving as the mix shifts toward higher-value work. He framed the latest period as evidence that the company has addressed earlier issues and is now “in a really good place.” A major part of his case is that the quality of the revenue mix has improved. He said the first half mix of outcome-based work was about 50% last year and is now “north of 70,” which he presented as a key indicator that RC Fornax is moving up the value chain. …
Tactically, the setup is constructive as long as monthly billings keep accelerating and the market believes a fundraise is not imminent. Any near-term stumble in conversion or cash generation would likely pressure sentiment quickly.
Over the next few quarters, the base case is gradual re-rating if outcome-based revenue keeps growing, margins hold up, and pipeline turns into repeatable billings. The thesis weakens if growth proves episodic or if larger contracts create financing strain before cash conversion catches up.
Structurally, RC Fornax is trying to prove that defence services can be sold on outcomes rather than hours, which would imply better margins and a more defensible business model. The long-term question is whether that procurement shift is real enough to support a durable re-rating beyond this near-term recovery.
RC Fornax revenue was 40% higher half on half.
Direct performance metric from the CFO.
The company has moved to a stronger pipeline and better monthly momentum after earlier issues.
CFO says prior problems were addressed and current numbers are improving month on month.
April billing was three times the level seen in September.
Used as evidence that the business has turned the corner operationally.
Where do you think the company stands overall right now?
Rob Shepherd says the company is in a really good place after a tough FY25, with issues from the IPO period now addressed. He says the business is seeing month-on-month improvement, stronger revenue, and better margins.
What numbers do you watch that best show the company’s health?
He points to month-on-month billing as the most important near-term metric, saying April billing was three times September's level. He also notes the first-half average monthly billing was about 360,000, and current billing is already 40% above that.
Is the shift toward higher-margin work the key change in the business?
Yes. He says the mix of outcome-based work has risen from around 50% in the prior first half to more than 70% now, which reflects a move up the value curve and is resonating with customers and politicians focused on value for money.
Unlock the full claims, asset map, scores, related transcripts, follow-up questions, and AI chat — shaped around your portfolio, watchlist, favorite speakers, and risks.
