CNBC’s Steve Liesman says higher gasoline and diesel prices are starting to show up in household budgets and could eventually slow consumer spending. He cites Mark Zandi’s estimate that the surge in oil has already cost consumers about $59 billion, or roughly $450 per household, with the burden potentially rising toward $2,000 per household if prices stay elevated through the first year of the war’s anniversary.
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This segment argues that the recent surge in oil and gasoline prices is no longer just a headline for energy markets; it is becoming a tangible drag on U.S. consumers. Steve Liesman frames the issue as a “deep tease” he had previewed the day before, then walks through Mark Zandi’s calculation of the cumulative bill: roughly $59 billion in total consumer costs, mostly gasoline, plus diesel and implied jet fuel costs, or about $450 per household. The key point is that this burden had been manageable partly because larger tax refunds offset it, but by mid-May the extra fuel costs had outstripped those refunds. Liesman’s core thesis is that consumer resilience may not last if high fuel prices persist. He cites Zandi’s warning that financially pressed consumers will likely become more cautious in spending unless the war ends soon, which could further weaken an already soft economy. …
Near term, the immediate risk is that elevated gas prices keep weighing on consumer sentiment and discretionary purchases even if oil pulls back modestly. Watch for any supply-related relief; without it, spending pressure remains a tactical headwind.
Over the next several weeks to months, consumer spending likely slows if fuel inflation stays elevated and real income growth stays weak. A sustained improvement would require either stronger wage/job growth or a meaningful increase in oil supply to ease pump prices.
Structurally, the segment argues that energy shocks still function as a tax on households and can cap the durability of consumer-led expansion. If supply constraints persist, higher fuel costs remain a recurring regime risk for growth and inflation.
The surge in oil prices is starting to show up as a real cost for consumers.
The speaker says the gas bill from higher oil is adding up and affecting spending.
Mark Zandi estimated the total consumer cost of the oil surge at $59 billion, or about $450 per household.
This is the segment's key quantified estimate of the burden on households.
Higher fuel costs had been offset by bigger tax refunds, but that offset has now been exceeded.
The speaker says the fuel burden was manageable until refunds stopped covering it.
You talked about this quite a bit yesterday, right, Steve?
Liesman says he had given a 'deep tease' the day before and was foreshadowing the segment.
You tell us where we are currently.
Liesman says oil futures have come down, but the adjustment will take time and the supply situation is still uncertain.
Do you read that article?
Liesman cites Walmart and other data showing consumers are coping by buying fewer gallons and stretching spending.
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