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Gold & Silver To Rally, But Bull Trap Looms: Forecast & Technical Analysis + Platinum & Palladium

Channel: Gareth Soloway Published: 2026-03-31 11:45
Gareth Soloway

Gareth Soloway is near-term bullish on gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, but he argues the metals are in a broader downtrend/bull-trap phase after a parabolic run and that a sharper rollover is likely after a few more weeks of bounce.

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Detailed summary

This is a technical update on precious metals from Gareth Soloway. He says gold and silver recently held key support, which flipped him slightly bullish in the near term for a bounce, but he still expects the move to be temporary and followed by another leg lower. For gold, he describes the post-October 2025 breakout, the subsequent vertical run, the lower-high/lower-low structure, and argues that the market has remained in a bearish downtrend despite the current rebound. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Near-term bounce in metals is intact, but he still views the broader setup as a bull-trap/rollover phase.
  2. Gold resistance levels: 4650 first, then about 4865; loss of 4344/4400 would weaken the rebound.
  3. He would prefer a much lower gold entry near 3500 for physical buying.
  4. Silver is expected to rally further in the short run, possibly toward about 82, before another drop.
  5. Palladium and platinum are both viewed as buyable only at lower technical levels, not at current prices.
  6. His long-term bullish case rests on debt expansion, weak fiscal discipline, and central-bank buying, not on chasing the current momentum.

Market read by horizon

Short term
  • Gold and silver look tactically bullish for a continued bounce after holding support.
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  • Gold should run into resistance around 4650; above that, 4865 is the next pivot to watch.
  • Silver has near-term upside potential, with 82 called out as a key area before expecting a rollover.
Mid term
  • Over the next several weeks to months, he expects the current rebound to exhaust and then transition into another downside leg.
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  • For gold, a failure back below the 4344/4400 region would support the view that the rally was only corrective.
  • For silver, he thinks a move up into the low-80s would likely complete a lower-high pattern rather than start a fresh bull phase.
Long term
  • He remains structurally bullish on precious metals because of U.S. debt growth, fiscal weakness, and central-bank accumulation.
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  • In his framework, the long-run bull market survives short-term washouts as long as macro stress and monetary debasement remain in place.
  • He views momentum-driven participation as non-durable; the lasting thesis is store-of-value demand rather than speculative chase buying.
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Key claims (8)

1:05
MIXED precious metals Gold

Gold’s current rebound is a near-term bounce after support held, but it is still inside a broader bearish downtrend.

He says support held, so a bounce is expected, but the sequence of lower high and lower low keeps the trend bearish.

3:25
BEARISH precious metals Gold

Gold faces near-term resistance around 4650, with 4865 as a secondary pivot if it clears that zone.

He explicitly names both levels as resistance/pivot areas derived from the chart structure.

5:50
BEARISH precious metals Gold and silver

The current gold/silver crowd is too momentum-driven, which makes the move vulnerable to a bull trap.

He argues many buyers entered for fast gains rather than store-of-value reasons and need to be shaken out.

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Assets discussed (5)

Gold — XAU/USD
MIXED commodity

Near-term bullish bounce off support, but broader setup is framed as a bull trap with another leg lower likely.

Silver — XAG/USD
MIXED commodity

He expects short-term upside continuation, but then a rollover after the rebound completes.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The call leans heavily on chart structure and level-based interpretation, but the rationale for why the current bounce must fail is partly subjective.
  • He says gold is in a bearish downtrend while also calling for a near-term bounce; the exact transition between corrective rally and trend resumption is not tightly defined.
  • The 3500 physical-gold buy level is presented as a preferred entry, but the transcript does not provide a full scenario analysis for what would invalidate that target.
  • The claim that weak hands have not yet been fully flushed out is interpretive and not directly evidenced by concrete positioning or flow data.
  • He assumes continued central-bank buying and fiscal deterioration as long-term supports without quantifying how much is already priced in.

Topics

gold technical analysissilver technical analysisbull trapprecious metals macro thesispalladium levelsplatinum levelssupport and resistancecentral bank buyingUS debtfiscal discipline

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