Gareth Soloway argues oil has broken down from a wedge pattern and likely has further downside despite the chance of a short-term bounce. He is modestly bearish on gold and silver, bearish on copper, and selectively bullish on platinum and palladium at lower technical support levels.
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Gareth Soloway opens by framing the video as a technical deep dive on oil, with follow-on coverage of gold, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium. His core thesis is that oil has already broken lower from a wedge pattern and, while a weekend headline or short-covering bounce is possible, the path of least resistance remains down. He repeatedly stresses that the breakdown was foreseeable from the wedge structure and that the move has already been “beautiful,” with price falling from around $104 to the mid-80s. On oil, he walks through the wedge logic in detail: converging highs and lows build pressure, and the key question is the direction of the break. In his view, the break lower is the important signal, and the subsequent decline confirms the setup. He identifies first support around $78.75 to $79, then a larger gap-fill support near $67.25. …
Near term, oil still looks tactically weak even after becoming stretched; watch for a bounce, but rallies are framed as selling opportunities unless price reclaims the broken wedge. Gold and silver are short-term range-to-lower, while copper looks vulnerable if growth or data-center optimism softens.
Over the next several weeks, the base case is continued pressure in oil and copper, with gold and silver drifting unless they clear resistance. Platinum and palladium are waitlist longs at lower support, but only if price actually reaches those zones and stabilizes.
Structurally, the video points to a market where commodity leadership is fragmented: energy is losing its risk premium, precious metals are consolidating after a run, and industrial metals are balancing secular demand themes against cyclical slowdown risk.
Oil has broken down from a wedge pattern and the move lower is likely to continue.
He says the wedge broke to the downside and that every day since has been down, implying ongoing weakness.
Oil may get a bounce after seven straight down days, but that would not change the broader bearish setup.
He cites time count behavior and says charts can bounce before the downtrend resumes.
Gold is still in a downtrend inside nested parallel channels, with 4650 and 4300 as key triggers.
He describes a parallel within a parallel and maps upside/downside levels.
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