Alasdair Macleod argues that fiat currencies are losing credibility fast, bond yields are breaking higher, and gold/silver are being mispriced relative to real-world physical demand and currency risk. He frames precious metals as the safer response to a growing fiat and sovereign-debt breakdown, with silver especially set up for a catch-up move once broader investors notice it.
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This is a Sprott Money month-end interview between host Craig Hempke and guest Alasdair Macleod. The core thesis is straightforward: the global fiat system is deteriorating, bond yields are starting a renewed rise, and gold and silver are not “rising” so much as preserving value against collapsing purchasing power. Macleod says the world is “on the edge of disaster,” with Germany, France, Japan and other sovereign bond markets already showing yield breakouts and the rest of the G7 likely to follow. A major part of his argument is that inflation and commodity strength predated the latest Middle East conflict. He points to the earlier 2020–2022 surge in bond yields as being mirrored by a surge in commodities, gold and silver, and says the recent geopolitical shock is not the cause but another symptom of a broader fiat debasement trend. …
Tactically, the setup is still metal-friendly and risk-off: rising yields, weak confidence in fiat, and thin physical availability argue against chasing bonds or cash. The immediate risk is being too cute on entry points if gold/silver gap higher on a stress catalyst.
Over the next few months, the base case is continued upside in gold and a delayed but potentially sharper move in silver if physical tightness and retail rotation persist. The main invalidation would be a durable stabilization in yields and a lack of follow-through in physical market stress.
Structurally, the interview argues that fiat money is losing monopoly status and that precious metals are reasserting themselves as reserve-grade money. If that regime shift continues, long-duration government claims should keep underperforming hard assets.
The world is on the edge of disaster because bond yields are breaking higher again, especially at the long end.
He directly links rising long rates to the next market stress event.
The previous surge in commodities, gold, and silver showed that inflation pressure was already developing before the latest Middle East conflict.
He says the commodity bull market predated the war and is not caused by it.
Higher Treasury yields do not necessarily hurt gold when currency risk is rising, as shown by the 1970s.
He uses the 1970s to argue that gold can rise alongside rates when fiat trust falls.
Where do you think we stand at this point economically and monetarily with so much still in flux?
We stand on the edge of disaster. Bond yields are breaking out on the upside across G7 countries. The commodity bull market was developing before the war, and when the whole commodity basket moves up, the purchasing power of the currency you're measuring it in moves down. Investors looking at government debt returns will conclude 5% on US Treasuries isn't sufficient compensation, which is why bond yields are breaking up.
Do you think gold will go up, and what would that mean for the market if it does?
He says gold will go up because currencies are going through the floor. He argues that bond yields will rise, equity markets will collapse, and precious metals will appear to rise mainly because they are holding value against depreciating currencies.
How do you think the Western paper pricing system affects oil, gold, and silver prices?
He says Western oil prices, like WTI, are divorced from realities in the Middle East and mainly reflect local supply conditions and paper trading. He extends that logic to metals, saying metal flows from the West to China show Western prices are too low and that physical scarcity could eventually expose the mismatch.
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