Gareth Soloway argues the S&P 500 is in a broader topping process: bearish early in the year, then tactically bullish for a near-term bounce off support/Fibonacci confluence, but likely setting up a later head-and-shoulders breakdown. He extends the same framework to silver and gold as bounce candidates and oil as a near-term downside catalyst.
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Gareth Soloway opens by identifying himself as chief market strategist at verifiedinvesting.com and says he was generally bearish on the market since the start of the year, but turned tactically bullish after technical signals appeared in equities, gold/silver, and oil. His core framework is that charts provide probabilities, not certainties, and that stacking multiple technical factors improves trade quality. He spends most of the video on the S&P 500. He says the market topped after a rounded-top formation developed from the 2020 COVID low / 2021 highs / October high sequence, with retail optimism and media bullishness allowing institutions to distribute shares. He argues the current selloff has reached major support because a trend line and a Fibonacci retracement both converge near the recent low, making a bounce likely. …
Near term, the market looks set up for a tradable bounce off technical support, with oil weakness helping sentiment and inflation fears. The main risk is that the rally becomes choppy and headline-driven rather than clean, which can still be used to fade strength later.
Over the next several weeks, the more likely path is a rebound that stalls into a larger topping structure instead of a durable breakout. Confirmation would come from the rally failing near overhead resistance and the market rolling over into a right-shoulder-style decline.
The structural view is bearish: this is a topping regime where rallies can be manufactured by sentiment, but the broader cycle still resolves lower. If the rounded-top / head-and-shoulders interpretation plays out, the important lesson is that apparent recoveries can be distribution phases inside a larger reversal.
The speaker was generally bearish on markets since the start of the year but flipped tactically bullish in the near term based on technical signals.
He explicitly contrasts his earlier bearish stance with his recent bullish turn.
The S&P 500 formed a rounded top after the 2021 highs and October high, with institutions distributing into retail optimism.
He describes the pattern and his interpretation of retail/institutional behavior.
The current S&P 500 low sits at major support because a trend line and Fibonacci retracement converge there, making a bounce likely.
He argues the support zone is stronger due to multiple stacked technical factors.
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