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Why I'm SHORTING Oil Right Now (Strait of Hormuz & Institutional Macro Analysis)

Channel: Gareth Soloway Published: 2026-03-20 13:31
Gareth Soloway

Gareth Soloway argues oil is likely topping near $100–$120 and is shorting it into weekend geopolitical risk, expecting a rollover if the Strait of Hormuz remains open or is normalized quickly. He pairs that view with a stronger dollar, rising yields, and a bearish read on silver and the broader economy.

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Detailed summary

Gareth Soloway, identified as chief market strategist at Verified Investing, says oil is up into the weekend and frames the key question as whether it will spike toward $120 or roll over from a topping pattern. He points to a daily-chart topping tail, inside-bar consolidation, and repeated failure near a long-standing weekly resistance zone that dates back to 2011–2012, arguing crude has likely already seen peak oil near $120 and could fall back under $80 within a week or two, and to $67–$70 by the midterms. A major part of his thesis is geopolitical: he expects the president may act over the weekend around the Strait of Hormuz / “Strait of Hermoose,” possibly involving Car Island or another military move, to ensure oil flows and avoid sustained $100 oil because of inflation, Fed constraints, and political optics. …

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Main takeaways

  1. He is tactically bearish oil and is already shorting a little ahead of the weekend.
  2. He sees a topping technical setup in crude, with resistance around $100–$120 and a likely rollover if the high pivot holds.
  3. He believes geopolitical action around the Strait of Hormuz could resolve the risk premium quickly and send oil lower.
  4. He reads the dollar and 10-year yield as supporting a higher-inflation, fewer-rate-cuts backdrop.
  5. He is bearish on silver over the medium term, though he expects a short bounce first.
  6. He thinks oil, inflation, layoffs, and weak consumption are reinforcing a stagflation/recession setup.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically bearish crude into the next trading sessions, with the key risk being a weekend escalation headline that forces a squeeze before the technical topping pattern resolves.

  • Weekend geopolitical headline risk is the immediate driver: any move that keeps the Strait of Hormuz open could trigger a fast crude pullback.
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  • He is using the current fear premium to initiate a small short and plans to add on a spike rather than chase higher.
  • The daily chart still shows a topping tail / reversal candle; a daily close above that high would invalidate the bearish setup.
Mid term

Over the coming weeks, the base case is a retreat in oil as the fear premium fades and the chart reverts from resistance, but the view needs confirmation through a clean break back below the recent pivot and follow-through lower.

  • Over the next several weeks, his base case is that crude drifts lower from around $100 and likely falls back below $80.
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  • He sees the weekly chart as showing major historical resistance near the $120 area, making a sustained break above that level unlikely.
  • The view depends on escalation cooling and oil flows normalizing; if the Middle East situation remains unstable, the decline could be delayed.
Long term

The structural message is that oil around $120 is acting like a multi-year ceiling, and sustained energy price spikes ultimately feed demand destruction, inflation pressure, and broader economic slowdown.

  • He is describing oil’s long-term regime as bounded by a multi-year ceiling that has held since roughly 2011–2012, with $120 behaving like a major structural top.
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  • His broader long-run thesis is stagflationary pressure: elevated energy costs, inflation persistence, and weaker growth can eventually suppress demand and bring commodity prices down.
  • He sees the consumer, especially higher-income spending tied to asset prices, as vulnerable once equity markets stop making new highs.
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Key claims (8)

1:00
BEARISH commodity prices Oil

Oil has a topping technical pattern unless and until the daily high of the topping tail is exceeded.

He identifies a reversal candle with a top wick as a topping signal and says a close above its high would negate it.

2:45
BEARISH Middle East geopolitics Oil

Oil is likely to decline after the weekend if the Strait of Hormuz situation is resolved or militarily secured.

He expects action over the weekend that would allow shipping to pass through, leading to lower crude prices.

3:10
BEARISH trading position Oil

He has started adding to a short oil position in his own account, sizing it modestly so he can average in if price spikes.

This is a direct position disclosure and risk-management approach.

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Assets discussed (5)

Oil — CL
BEARISH commodity

He says oil is topping, is shorting it, and expects a rollover from near $100 toward sub-$80 and eventually $67–$70.

U.S. Dollar — DXY
BULLISH fx

He says the dollar has continued to spike higher and is in a very steep uptrend.

Unlock the full asset map (3 more) See all assets mentioned, their directional bias, and the exact reasoning. Unlock asset map

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The geopolitical scenario is highly speculative: he assumes a specific government action over the weekend without direct evidence in the transcript.
  • He treats a temporary spike in oil as likely to resolve quickly, but gives limited support for why supply would normalize by Monday.
  • The claim that the president ‘is not going to sit by’ because of inflation and optics is more opinion than evidence-based analysis.
  • His midterm and next-year rate-cut conclusions are asserted from the oil/inflation backdrop, but he does not address other Fed inputs or counterarguments.
  • The linkage between oil, silver, equities, and AI layoffs is directionally plausible but presented with limited causal evidence.

Topics

oil technical analysisStrait of Hormuz geopoliticsinflation and Fed policyU.S. dollar strength10-year Treasury yieldsilver technicalsstagflationrecession risk

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