Gareth Soloway argues oil has printed a bearish reversal and expects a near-term market bounce as oil cools, but remains broadly bearish on the S&P 500 over the next several months. He is tactically bullish on beaten-down names like SMR, Microsoft, Meta, and Bitcoin, while staying longer-term cautious on equities, gold, silver, and oil-related inflation.
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This is a single-speaker technical market update from Gareth Soloway of Verified Investing. He opens by framing himself as a chart-driven trader who prefers technical analysis over narratives, then walks through several assets and time horizons. His central near-term view is that oil has flashed a bearish topping pattern and is likely to retrace, which should support a short-term bounce in equities. He says the S&P 500 can rally roughly 5% to 6% in the near term as oil eases and yields pull back, but he still expects the broader market to weaken again by mid-year and potentially fall toward 5,500-5,600 by year-end if the economy slows and underlying credit/labor/housing stress persists. He is strongly bearish on oil in the chart sense, arguing that the recent spike lacks follow-through and that the pattern looks like a topping tail followed by a bearish flag. …
Near term, the setup is for a relief rally in risk assets if oil keeps fading and the 10-year yield continues to back off. The actionable risk is that any renewed spike in crude or yields would quickly undercut the bounce thesis.
Over the next several weeks to months, he expects an initial recovery in stocks to exhaust itself and then give way to another leg lower as recession-like weakness in credit, housing, and labor data persists. Confirmation would come from oil stabilizing lower while equities fail near resistance; the view weakens if growth re-accelerates or crude re-breaks higher.
Structurally, the transcript argues for a late-cycle slowdown where high energy prices, tighter financial conditions, and credit strain eventually dominate headline market rallies. In that regime, tactical bounces can happen, but the durable thesis remains lower equity prices and selective leadership in energy-transition and defensive themes.
Oil is forming a bearish reversal pattern and the recent move higher is likely to fade.
He points to a topping tail and bearish flag, saying the chart is bearish and not supportive of $200 oil.
The S&P 500 can bounce in the near term as oil and yields cool, even though the broader trend remains weaker.
He explicitly separates a tactical rally from a larger bearish outlook.
The broader economy is weakening beneath the surface, so any equity bounce should eventually fail.
He cites auto delinquencies, credit card delinquencies, housing weakness, private credit stress, and weak job growth revisions.
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