WisdomTree’s Kevin Flanagan and Jeff Weniger argue that the current earnings backdrop supports the bull market, with S&P 500 earnings growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 looking ambitious but still plausible. They frame the setup as a decent-to-good earnings season, emphasize that Fed easing has already been substantial in real terms, and suggest earnings can keep growing for years after cuts begin.
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This is a short, conversational market commentary from WisdomTree rather than a formal research presentation. Kevin Flanagan opens by introducing the show and Jeff Weniger, then pivots quickly to the main theme: earnings are back in focus now that Middle East headlines have cooled. Weniger says the current earnings season is decent, citing roughly a 72–73% beat rate in S&P 500 names, and notes they have not yet seen the Mag 7 results. The central thesis is that the market’s forward earnings expectations—about 22% growth in 2026 and 15% in 2027—may actually be achievable, which would be enough to sustain the bull market. Weniger’s supporting argument is built around the idea that rate cuts work with a lag. …
Near term, the setup is still constructive if earnings keep beating and the Fed stays on hold, but the market may become more selective as Mag 7 results and guidance roll in. The immediate risk is that a few misses make the 2026–2027 growth story look too optimistic.
Over the next few months, the base case is a steady bull market supported by acceptable growth, resilient labor data, and no Fed tightening. The thesis weakens if earnings revisions roll over or if inflation re-accelerates enough to revive rate-hike fears.
Structurally, the speakers argue that easing cycles can support earnings for years, which keeps the equity regime favorable even after multiple expansion cools. The lasting implication is that the market’s ceiling is higher than bears expect as long as profits and labor remain intact.
Current S&P 500 earnings season is decent, with about a 72–73% beat rate.
Weniger explicitly cites the beat rate and characterizes it as a good, though not great, season.
Street consensus expects 22% S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026 and 15% in 2027.
This is the core forward-looking estimate that anchors the bull-case math.
Earnings growth can stay strong for years after the Fed starts cutting rates.
The speaker cites historical patterns showing earnings peaks years after the start of easing cycles.
What is the market expecting for S&P 500 earnings this year and in 2026-2027, and is that outlook believable?
Jeff says the S&P 500 is in the middle of earnings season with a roughly 72-73% beat rate, which he calls a good, though not great, season. Looking ahead, street consensus is for 22% earnings growth in 2026 and 15% in 2027, and he argues that those numbers are very doable and could support the bull market.
How far can the S&P 500 run by 2028 if earnings growth and valuations hold up?
Jeff says that if you extend the earnings math into 2028 and apply a normal trailing multiple, the S&P could be around 10,000 or a bit higher. He adds that even more bearish valuation assumptions still tend to put the index in the six- to seven-thousand range, depending on the earnings backdrop.
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