Gareth Soloway argues that hotter-than-expected inflation and weaker GDP initially set the market up for a selloff, but the Supreme Court’s ruling against tariffs gave equities a temporary reprieve. He still expects the bounce to fail and is watching a bearish S&P head-and-shoulders pattern, broader weakness in the Nasdaq/Dow, and vulnerable mega-cap tech names.
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Gareth Soloway opens by saying verifiedinvesting.com and identifies himself as chief market strategist. He frames the day’s macro backdrop as negative: GDP came in at 1.4% versus 2.8% expected, and inflation prints were hotter than expected on the PCE measure. He says that combination points to slower growth with sticky inflation, raising stagflation risk and reducing the odds of Fed rate cuts. He then says the market was preparing for a major down day until the Supreme Court ruled tariffs illegal, which he believes provided a relief rally because tariffs are inflationary and removing them could ease future price pressure. He emphasizes that the bounce is likely temporary and says the market still looks vulnerable. On charts, he highlights a bearish S&P 500 head-and-shoulders pattern that has not yet broken the neckline. …
Near term, the tariff ruling can support a bounce, but the move looks like a relief rally inside a still-fragile tape. If the S&P neckline and the Dow trendline give way, the market can quickly reverse back into risk-off.
Over the next few weeks, the market likely needs to prove that growth can stabilize without re-accelerating inflation; otherwise the bounce may fail and the bearish chart structure can reassert itself. Confirmation would come from support holding and a clean reversal in macro weakness; invalidation would come from a sustained breakout above the current resistance structure.
Structurally, the transcript argues for a late-cycle / topping regime where slower growth and sticky inflation are more important than any one policy headline. If that regime persists, tariff headlines may matter less than the broader earnings and liquidity backdrop, which could favor a deeper equity correction.
GDP came in weaker than expected at 1.4% versus 2.8% forecast.
He explicitly cites the GDP print and compares it to the forecast.
Inflation was hotter than expected on PCE and still near 3%.
He says both month-over-month and year-over-year inflation numbers were hotter than expected and that PCE is basically at 3% still.
Tariffs are inflationary, so removing them could temper future inflation and help the market.
He argues the tariff ruling is positive because it may reduce price pressure.
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