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PRECIOUS METALS WARNING: The "Quiet" Before The Crash? (Gold & Silver)

Channel: Gareth Soloway Published: 2026-02-19 14:45
Gareth Soloway

Gareth Soloway argues the precious metals complex is losing momentum after a sharp run, with gold holding up better than silver but both showing bearish near-term setups. He leans short-term bearish on silver, cautious-to-mixed on gold, and similarly cautious on platinum, palladium, and copper, which he says all look technically vulnerable after topping and inside-bar breakdown patterns.

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Detailed summary

This video is a chart-focused technical review of precious metals led by Gareth Soloway, who says volatility in metals is subsiding in a way that looks like digestion after a recent drop, not a healthy reset for bulls. He argues that if the metals were going to resume higher immediately, they would have quickly reclaimed prior highs; instead, gold is chopping near the upper end of its range while silver is sitting near the low end of its support zone. His core message is that the charts are pointing to lower prices in the near term unless key resistance levels are decisively reclaimed. For gold, he highlights resistance around 5100-5125 and says the prior topping action, including a doji after multiple up candles, signaled exhaustion. He says the recent drop found support in the 4300-4400 area, making that the current base. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Soloway’s near-term read is bearish for precious metals, especially silver, because the recent moves look like consolidation after a top rather than a bullish reset.
  2. Gold is comparatively stronger than silver, but still trading in a corrective structure unless it reclaims resistance decisively.
  3. Silver is his clearest short setup: topping tail, failed follow-through above the high, and support near 70-71 that he expects to break.
  4. He extends the same technical downside bias to platinum, palladium, and copper, each of which he says has a visible topping or inside-bar breakdown structure.
  5. His framework is explicitly probabilistic: charts, levels, and confirmation matter more to him than bullish narratives about supply shortages or “new cycles.”

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the setup is fragile for metals: silver is the most exposed to a downside break, while gold is merely less weak rather than clearly bullish. A quick reclaim of overhead resistance would force a reassessment, but absent that, the tactical bias is for continued softness and possible flushes.

  • Silver is the most immediate tactical concern: he sees 70-71 as key support that, if lost, could trigger a flush.
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  • Gold is holding better, but it is still capped by resistance around 5100-5125 and needs a fast reclaim to shift the setup.
  • He expects volatility to remain muted for now, which he interprets as a prelude to the next move rather than a sign of strength.
Mid term

Over the coming weeks to months, the base case is that silver and the more speculative metals resolve lower from their current ranges, while gold may lag less badly if it can defend its higher base. Confirmation would come from silver losing 70-71 and from failed rallies in gold beneath 5100-5125; a sustained break above those levels would weaken the bearish framework.

  • Over the next several weeks to months, his base case is that silver resolves lower from its current consolidation and heads toward the 50-54 area.
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  • Gold may continue to outperform silver, but he does not see a clean bullish trend reassertion unless it clears overhead resistance and holds above it.
  • If gold can break out, the next major upside area he flags is the 5400-5600 double-top region.
Long term

Structurally, the video argues that chart patterns can expose regime shifts in metals before narratives do, and that precious metals are not immune to distribution after euphoric runs. If his read is right, the broader lesson is that scarcity stories and supercycle narratives do not override price structure when momentum exhausts.

  • He treats chart patterns as durable expressions of crowd psychology, implying that the same technical structures repeat across assets because human emotion repeats.
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  • The broader regime implication is that precious metals can remain vulnerable even after strong runs if distribution patterns appear at highs and fail to confirm.
  • He suggests copper’s long-term direction may become a recession gauge, with deep downside potential if macro growth deteriorates.
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Key claims (8)

BEARISH

Volatility in precious metals is subsiding in a way that looks like digestion after the recent drop, not a healthy bullish reset.

He says the market is going to sleep and that this is 'not a good sign' near term.

MIXED Gold

Gold has resistance around 5100-5125 and support around 4300-4400, with a possible upside run only if it breaks and holds above resistance.

He frames gold as weaker than before but still better than silver, with clear support and resistance zones.

BEARISH Silver

Silver’s topping tail at the highs remains valid because it never received a daily close above the tail’s high.

He argues the reversal is unbroken and therefore still active.

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Assets discussed (6)

Gold
MIXED commodity

He says gold is stronger than silver and may still break higher, but the broader setup is still corrective with resistance at 5100-5125 and support around 4300-4400.

Silver
BEARISH commodity

He calls silver the weaker precious metal, highlights a topping-tail reversal, and says a break of 70-71 likely opens a move toward 50-54.

Unlock the full asset map (4 more) See all assets mentioned, their directional bias, and the exact reasoning. Unlock asset map

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • He assumes the topping-tail/doji structure has high predictive power without discussing enough fundamental drivers that could invalidate the setup.
  • The probability estimates are asserted qualitatively rather than derived from a documented backtest or measured sample.
  • The longer-term copper recession target is presented as a plausible path, but the macro recession premise is not independently developed in the video.
  • He strongly favors downside continuation in silver even while acknowledging a smaller breakout scenario, but does not specify clear conditions for that alternative beyond a general resistance break.

Topics

gold technical levelssilver topping patternprecious metals downside riskplatinum levelspalladium levelscopper recession setupchart patterns and probabilitybear flags and inside bars

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