Gareth Soloway argues the S&P 500 is still in a bearish macro trend, but the immediate setup is not yet confirmed for a major leg lower until the 6,800 neckline breaks on a daily close. He sees short-term bounce opportunities in Microsoft and Oracle, while warning JPMorgan and banks may roll over as the economy weakens and default risk rises.
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Gareth Soloway, identifying himself as chief market strategist at verified investing.com, frames the market as split between a bearish larger-timeframe structure and a still-unconfirmed short-term breakdown. His main focus is the S&P 500, where he says a head-and-shoulders pattern exists below major resistance and would only be triggered by a daily close below 6,800. He emphasizes that the index has already broken a longer-term trend line from the April lows, so the macro picture is bearish, but he distinguishes that from the micro setup, which he calls neutral until neckline confirmation. He also notes the S&P’s intraday rebound and links it to the move in the 10-year yield, arguing that rising yields can be bullish for equities when they signal less recession fear and a better-than-expected economy. He then shifts to tactical long ideas. …
Near term, the tape looks vulnerable but not yet confirmed for a full downside break; 6,800 on the S&P is the key tactical inflection, while selected large-cap tech names may bounce from support before broader selling resumes.
Over the next several weeks, expect an attempted relief rally in beaten-down tech to coexist with growing downside risk in the major index. If neckline and trendline supports fail, the market likely shifts from correction to a more sustained leg lower.
The speaker’s structural view is that the equity regime has already deteriorated and the cycle still points lower from the highs. Short-term rebounds are framed as trading opportunities inside a larger bearish trend, not as evidence that the macro downtrend has ended.
The S&P 500 has a head-and-shoulders pattern that will only trigger a major downside move if 6,800 breaks on a daily closing basis.
He explicitly says the pattern is there but needs a daily close below 6,800 to confirm the next leg down.
The larger S&P 500 structure is already bearish because the market broke the longer-term trend line from the April lows.
He distinguishes the macro structure from the short-term neckline setup and says the bigger pattern is strongly bearish.
A rise in the 10-year yield can be bullish for stocks when it reflects a healthier economy rather than recession fear.
He explicitly contrasts good-rate moves versus bad-rate moves and links the current yield bounce to equity strength.
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