Moulik Nagesh argues that crypto has matured from a retail-driven, highly speculative market into a more institutional, regulation-sensitive asset class. He says Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a portfolio asset with regime-dependent correlations, while altcoins are becoming more selective and fundamentals-driven. The biggest structural shift, in his view, is the convergence of crypto and TradFi through stablecoins, ETFs, tokenization, and super-app style distribution.
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This conversation is a broad thesis interview about how crypto and traditional finance are converging, with Moulik Nagesh framing the current market as a much more mature version of prior cycles. His core claim is that the biggest change is not just price action, but the buyer base and market structure: institutionalization and clearer regulation have shifted demand away from being mostly retail-driven toward mandate-based, institutional capital. In that world, Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a macro asset with portfolio relevance, not merely a speculative trade, while altcoins are becoming more selective and tied to fundamentals rather than broad narrative speculation. Nagesh repeatedly emphasizes that institutions tend to be “stickier” buyers than retail. …
Near term, the setup remains institutional-flow and regulation-driven, with Bitcoin still the cleanest preferred exposure and stablecoin/tokenization headlines the most important catalysts. Watch for sharp reactions to Clarity Act developments, ETF flow changes, and any renewed DeFi/security shocks.
Over the coming weeks and months, the base case is a continued move toward selective, fundamentals-based crypto participation and deeper on-chain liquidity if regulation clarifies the rules. If stablecoin and tokenization adoption keep expanding, the market should increasingly favor assets and chains with obvious value accrual and institutional fit.
Structurally, crypto and TradFi appear to be converging into one financial infrastructure stack with specialized rails rather than a single universal chain. The durable thesis is that tokenized access, stablecoin settlement, and 24/7 markets will become standard plumbing, even if adoption unfolds unevenly.
The biggest change in crypto markets is their maturity, driven by institutionalization and clearer regulation.
He frames the current cycle as structurally different because the market has moved from retail-led to institutional-led demand.
Institutional demand has become a larger share of crypto buying, making flows stickier and less volatile than in prior cycles.
He cites ETF AUM falling less than prices during volatility as evidence that institutions are more mandate-driven than retail.
Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a macro asset that can improve risk-adjusted returns and fit into portfolio construction.
He says institutions are treating BTC as a portfolio inclusion with regime-dependent correlation rather than only a speculative trade or hedge.
Can you give us a quick overview of your role at Binance and the data you come into contact with day-to-day?
Mullik is the macro research lead at Binance on a lean team that covers macrobased metrics, industry metrics, and deep dives on thematic focuses like stablecoins, DeFi, and layer ones. They look at institutional metrics combined with onchain metrics such as stablecoin flows, onchain liquidity, ETF flows, and digital asset treasuries, blending the worlds of TradFi and crypto.
Where are we now in the current market cycle and what defines this cycle versus previous ones?
The biggest change is the maturity of the space driven by institutionalization and regulation. The buyer base has shifted from retail-driven to institutional, resulting in more mandate-based purchases, declining volatility trends, and Bitcoin being viewed as a macro asset class providing enhanced risk-adjusted returns with regime-dependent correlation. Altcoins have become more selective with a drive toward fundamentals. Liquidity structures have also diversified with stablecoins, ETFs, and digital asset treasuries.
Are you seeing Bitcoin becoming a hedge against geopolitical chaos and market volatility, especially given ETF inflows versus SPY volatility?
Bitcoin is still a very early asset class with limited data points, so opinions continue to evolve. It provides enhanced risk-adjusted returns and there's a drive for ~2.5% inclusion in 60/40 portfolios. Short-term it reacts risk-off during stress episodes like geopolitical tension, but longer-term it acts as a semi-diversifier due to structural differences like supply-based metrics and cycles. We've never seen Bitcoin operate in a high-interest-rate environment or with this kind of geopolitical volatility, so its behavior is still being learned.
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