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[LIVE] NASDAQ Pre-Market Show w/ Leo – OIL, GOLD, SPY, QQQ, ES | Real-Time Day Trading Strategy

Channel: Pasha IRL Published: 2026-06-01 08:11
Pasha IRL

A live pre-market day-trading stream centered on NASDAQ futures, SPY/ES, oil, gold, and Bitcoin. The speaker mostly trades price action in real time, repeatedly emphasizing the divergence between ES and NQ, reacting to geopolitical/news flow, and ending by announcing he will shut this stream and restart for the New York open.

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Detailed summary

This was a live pre-market trading stream rather than a polished macro thesis. The speaker spent most of the session watching intraday price action on NQ, ES, and related instruments, describing entries, stops, profit-taking, and the relationship between moving averages, VWAP, and recent highs/lows. The main trading idea was that ES and NQ were diverging sharply: he repeatedly said ES was in a cleaner uptrend while NQ was weaker, below VWAP, and forming a bearish compression pattern. Later in the stream he noted that the relationship flipped and that NQ began looking more bullish short term while ES softened, underscoring that he was trading the tape more than holding a fixed directional view. He framed the session around the first day of the month and a heavy news calendar. …

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Main takeaways

  1. This is a live tactical trading stream, not a single coherent macro thesis.
  2. The speaker repeatedly contrasted ES strength with NQ weakness, then later noted the relationship rotated intraday.
  3. Geopolitical headlines around Iran/Israel/US were treated as market-moving catalysts, not as deep analysis.
  4. The main tools were EMA stacks, VWAP, support/resistance, sweeps, and measured-move price action.
  5. He is highly willing to flip bias as price structure changes, which makes the stream more tradeable than predictive.
  6. He closed the session to restart for the New York open, implying the premarket setup was only the first phase.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the actionable setup is fast and headline-sensitive: NQ was the weaker leg, but reclaim attempts could flip the tape quickly. Watch the PMI window, VWAP, and the 445/500-style pivot zones he flagged for whether this remains a fade-the-rally market or turns into a squeeze.

  • He was watching for NQ to either continue below VWAP or reclaim key intraday levels after the bearish compression failed.
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  • The most immediate catalyst was the New York open, with US PMI data and other releases due around the open.
  • He treated the Iran/US/Israel headlines as a short-term risk-on/risk-off trigger for index futures.
Mid term

Over the next few weeks, the likely path is choppy two-way trading until a clear higher-low/reclaim or lower-low continuation confirms the broader index direction. His base case is to keep trading relative strength/weakness between ES and NQ rather than assuming both indexes resolve the same way.

  • Over the next several weeks/months, his base case appears to be that NQ can remain vulnerable whenever it loses VWAP and fails to hold higher lows.
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  • He is likely to keep favoring mean-reversion and scalp entries until price structure confirms a broader trend continuation.
  • A stronger bullish case would require sustained reclaim of the higher-level pivot he identified around 500 and continued acceptance above it.
Long term

Structurally, the transcript reflects a market regime driven by liquidity sweeps, intraday positioning, and headline shocks more than by slow-moving fundamental narratives. The lasting implication is that this style of trading rewards adaptability and risk control, not conviction in a single macro story.

  • Structurally, the stream reflects a regime where intraday market structure, liquidity sweeps, and ETF/index divergence matter more than static macro narratives.
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  • He implicitly treats the market as an order-flow and positioning game, with classic price-action patterns still useful in modern conditions.
  • His repeated use of geopolitics as a catalyst suggests the market regime remains sensitive to headline shocks and risk-premium repricing.
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Key claims (6)

53:30
MIXED intraday relative strength ES / NQ

ES was stronger than NQ early in the session, with ES in an uptrend and NQ forming a bearish compression below VWAP.

This was his central intraday relative-strength read and the basis for several trade ideas.

1:35:40
UNCLEAR US PMI NQ / ES

The news calendar was expected to create a volatile first 15 minutes around the New York open, followed by possible sideways trade before the main releases.

He explicitly tied the day’s expected volatility to PMI prints and the opening window.

1:51:10
BEARISH price action NQ

A classic price-action framework suggested the NQ pattern should break lower because it had lower highs and equal bottoms.

He repeatedly described the setup as compressing down and referenced a measured-move target from older price-action books.

Unlock 3 more claims See the full bullish, bearish, and counter-consensus argument map extracted from the transcript. Unlock all claims

Assets discussed (10)

NQ — NQ
MIXED index

Initially he viewed NQ as bearish and compressing lower below VWAP, then later said it looked bullish on the very short term and discussed long scalps.

ES — ES
MIXED index

He repeatedly said ES was stronger than NQ and in an uptrend, though later he noted ES also softened and joined broader weakness at times.

Unlock the full asset map (8 more) See all assets mentioned, their directional bias, and the exact reasoning. Unlock asset map

Speakers

SPEAKER Leo

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The speaker repeatedly leans on classic price-action patterns and measured-move logic, but does not provide statistical evidence that these patterns have an edge beyond anecdote.
  • He makes several directional calls that reverse quickly intraday, which shows adaptability but also reduces confidence in any single forecast.
  • Some geopolitical headlines are treated as if they justify the move, but he also admits the news may have been known earlier, weakening the immediacy of the causal link.
  • The discussion of NQ as potentially bubble-like is more impressionistic than analytical; there is no valuation, breadth, or earnings-based support.
  • He uses support/resistance and time-zone labels interchangeably at times, which may be useful tactically but is not rigorously justified.

Topics

nasdaq futureses vs nq divergencevwap and ema tradingiran israel us headlinesoil and goldbitcoin breakdownprop firm ruleslive scalpingnew york open planprice action education

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