A market interview centered on Chris Vermulen’s view that the recent equity rebound, precious-metals surge, and bond weakness are all part of a larger setup for a sharp market reset. He stays tactical and trend-following, but the core message is defensive: stay long while trends are up, raise cash into strength, and be ready to rotate after a major washout.
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This is an interviewer-led market discussion between Daryl Thomas of VRIC Media and Chris Vermulen of The Technical Traders. The conversation opens with the recent whipsaw in equities tied to Middle East conflict and oil volatility, and Vermulen argues that the selling was overextended and has already snapped back, putting the S&P 500 near all-time highs again. He says markets are being driven by cycle lows, momentum shifts, and risk-on rotation into semis, small caps, and micro caps, while defensives and dividend names have lagged. A major theme is his belief that the current rally could still extend, potentially toward much higher S&P levels if a euphoric blowoff develops, but that the larger endgame remains a severe US equity correction. He repeatedly frames himself as bearish on the big picture but unwilling to fight an uptrend, emphasizing price-following over news-following. …
Near term, the tape is still risk-on and could squeeze higher into fresh highs, so fighting the move is hazardous. The immediate tactical edge is to trim into strength and stay alert for a sharp reversal if the dollar or bonds suddenly resolve the other way.
Over the next several weeks or months, he expects a possible transition from a euphoric rally to a broader risk unwind, especially if dollar strength and bond weakness confirm. The setup turns bearish only after price loses support; until then he treats the rally as tradable but potentially late-cycle.
Structurally, he sees the market as late-cycle and vulnerable to a major reset that could reprice equities, metals, bonds, and portfolios all at once. The long-run implication is that capital preservation, liquidity, and buying quality after dislocations matter more than chasing late-cycle momentum.
The market selloff tied to Middle East conflict became oversold and has already snapped back into a strong rebound.
He says the market got stretched to the downside like a spring and is now recoiling higher.
The S&P 500 is close to all-time highs and could trigger short covering if it breaks out.
He says it is less than half a percent from highs and that shorts may be forced to cover.
Risk appetite is rotating into semiconductors, small caps, and micro caps, while defensives and dividend stocks lag.
He points to utilities, staples, dividends as weak and micro caps/semis as strong.
What do you think about market behavior right now, especially with the conflict in Iran and the whipsaw moves in equities?
Vermulen says the market was oversold on Middle East fear and has already snapped back hard, with the S&P near highs and risk-on leadership returning.
What is going on with the S&P 500, which looked like it was about to roll over?
He says the S&P has been coiling sideways, then broke higher on cycle lows and news-driven fear, and may still have room to rally further.
What is going on with AI-linked storage names like SanDisk and Micron?
He says AI creates more data, so storage and chips are necessary infrastructure, and he likes these supply-chain plays as relatively lower-risk beneficiaries.
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